Hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza are rising as pressure mounts on Hamas and Israel

Drafts of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, currently being discussed by Israel and Hamas in indirect talks in Doha, have been on the table since May. So why are there fresh expectations that it might work after eight months of war?

There are several things that have shifted – both politically and on the ground.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States.

He has threatened that “all hell” would break loose if the hostages were not released before he took office on January 20.

Hamas may well read this as a sign that even the tenuous brakes the Biden administration used to try to rein in the Israeli government will be lifted, though it’s hard to imagine what that might mean for a territory already so devastated by 15 months of war. .

Israel is also under pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to derail Trump’s hopes of a broader regional deal and his desired image of a war-stopping president.

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces continued pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.

But Trump could also be an asset for him to convince his allies to swallow the deal and stay in government; The new US president and the man he chose to be Israel’s ambassador are seen as supporters of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich declared that he wanted to annex.

But after meeting the prime minister last night, Smotrich appeared unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.

However, some in Israel believe that both Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their current role in the Israeli government as their best chance to consolidate control over the West Bank, especially with Trump’s return to the White House, and that they are unlikely to follow through on their threats to leave.

The second thing that has changed is the growing pressure on Netanyahu from his own military department.

He has been widely reported to have been repeatedly challenged by key figures about scaling back military objectives throughout the war, following the assassination of senior Hamas leadership and the destruction of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, putting renewed focus on the cost of war to Israel and the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas that Netanyahu has promised is achievable.

Some analysts now believe that Hamas is recovering faster than Israel is defeating it, and that Israel needs to rethink its strategy.

And there is a third – regional – shift that also affects changing expectations: the weakening and erosion of Hamas allies in Iranian “axis of resistance”from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, now is seen as the best chance in months to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn’t changed in the eight months since their last talks are the rifts between them.

Key among them is the direct conflict between the key concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and Israel, which wants to keep the door open to renewed conflict for political or military reasons.

deal, as outlined by President Joe Biden in Mayis divided into three phases, with a permanent ceasefire coming into force only in the second phase.

Success now is likely to depend on whether guarantees can be found to allay Hamas fears that Israel will withdraw from the deal after the first phase of hostage releases.

At this stage, questions about how to manage the territory from which Israel is withdrawing are also unclear.

But last week, a diplomatic net criss-crossed the region, and the fact that Netanyahu sent Israel’s security chiefs to the talks in Doha, along with a key political adviser, are encouraging signs.

The same goes for the departure to Doha of the coordinator of Palestinian detainees Kadour Fares.

The deal has yet to be concluded – and talks have broken down before.

That old deal is fueling new hopes in part because the talks are taking place in a new regional context, with growing pressure both at home and from key allies abroad.