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Cargo ships and containers in the port of Tsingao in the province of Shondo -Eastern China on December 4, 2024.
Stringer | AFP | Gets the image
On Wednesday, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the forecast of the global trade “sharply deteriorated” after the regime of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“The forecast of global trade deteriorated sharply with the surge of tariffs and uncertainty of trade,” the WTO said in its latest message “Global Trade Perspective and Statistics” on Wednesday.
Based on the tariffs that now exist, including a 90-day suspension of “mutual tariffs”, it is expected that in 2025 the volume of world trade in goods will decrease by 0.2% before accommodating “modest” recovery 2.5% in 2026.
It is estimated that the decrease will be particularly steep in North America, where exports by 12.6%are forecast this year.
The WTO also warned that there are “serious risks”, including the application of “mutual” tariffs and a wider break of uncertainty policy “, which could lead to a different decline of 1.5% in the world trade in goods,” especially harming the export-oriented, least developed countries.
Recent tariff violations have a strong year for world trade in 2024, during which trade in goods increased by 2.9%, and the trade commercial service increased by 6.8%, the WTO said.
A new estimate of the world trade decline by 0.2% by 2025. Almost three percentage points are lower than it would be at the “low tariff” of the original scenario, the WTO has been added to a significant cancellation since the beginning of the year, when economists of the trade body, which are expected to maintain further expansion of trade by improving macroeconomic conditions.
“The risks for the forecast include the implementation of the US mutual tariffs, as well as the broader overflow of the uncertainty of trade policy outside the US trade relations,” the WTO said.
“In case of adoption, mutual tariffs will reduce the growth of world trade in goods by additional 0.6 percentage points, which creates special risks for the least developed countries (LOP), while the distribution of trade (TPU) will shave another 0.8 percent.
On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump appeared with tariffs in a pink garden in Washington, Colombia.
Carlos Bari | Reuters
Trump stunned trading partners and world markets in early April, when he announced the raft of “return” import tariffs from more than 180 countries. Beijing has been achieved by the most violent of all: the US duty on Chinese imports is currently effective for 145%. China, in turn Up to 125% of imports to the US.
A wide market turbulence after the tariff announcement caused Trump’s temporary rise, and last week the president announced it The new import duties of most trading partners will be reduced to 10% in 90 days To allow Trade negotiations With Washington’s colleagues.
The WTO in its Wednesday reports that the impact of recent changes in trade policy is probably sharply different from the region to the region.
In the adjusted forecast, North America subtracts 1.7 percentage from the growth of global trade in goods in 2025, turning the overall number.
Meanwhile, Asia and Europe continue to contribute positively, but less than in the basic scenario, with Asia’s contribution decreased to 0.6 percentage points.
It is expected that the disruption in the US-Kita trade “causes considerable trade sabotage,” the WTO added, causing concern to the third markets about increasing competition from China.
“Chinese exports of goods are supposed to grow by 4% to 9% in all regions outside North America, as the trade is redirected. At the same time, US imports are expected to fall into sector such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment, creating new opportunities for other suppliers,” Noting that this could open the door to some of the least developed countries that increase their exports to increase exports to increase exports to increase exports.
