French promise to recognize Palestine – this is a gambling game

The announcement of President Emmanuel Macron’s intention to recognize the Palestinian statehood is huge pressure on Sir Keira Starmer to follow the example.

The French are heard to take this step for some time.

They planned to report it a few weeks ago, but were forced to detain after Israel, and the United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The main thing is that France does not recognize the Palestinian state now – it will do this, says Macron at the UN General Assembly in September.

French hope is that their proclamation, meanwhile, will lead to diplomatic impulse and urge other countries to join them.

The French president likes to do bold, dramatic games on the international stage. But this is a gambling game.

In particular, he counts on the UK to monitor his leader. When Macron visited Parliament a few weeks ago, he told MPs and peers that “working together to recognize the Palestine state and initiate this political moment is the only way to peace.”

One senior French diplomat told me a few days ago that if the UK acted with France, you would see with other countries to join, “because two parent members of the UN Security Council (UNC) shows what we mean business.” The US, China and Russia are other UN members, with ten other countries elected for a two -year term.

They added: “The best contribution that France and UK can bring is a reboot of the process, bringing all the stakeholders at the table, making the obligations to the Palestine and Israel’s security. We have such power, such an opportunity to restart this process.”

The problem is that the British Prime Minister is still reluctant to take this step in the recognition of the Palestinian state.

This, in part, reflects the traditional British policy. The UK has long claimed that the act of recognizing the Palestinian state should not waste what some see as a gesture policy. One senior source asked what influence the French decision in addition to make Macron feel better.

Instead, officials claim that this diplomatic card should be productively used to promote the momentum in a long -term political settlement; A lever with which you can get a transaction along the line.

In other words, recognition was part of the end of the game. Such is the sensitivity to this question that David Cameron, as a Foreign Minister, Last year’s bewildered feathers If he even suggested that the recognition could be made in the process rather than the final step.

But the decision of France believes that now they believe that recognition should not even be a stage in the diplomatic sequence, but launch to open it all, the shock for the status of -Kwa, which is required by a long Israeli unwavering level and scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The UK has also traditionally appealed to the recognition of the Palestinian state, fearing to upset its allies, the US and Israel, who firmly oppose this idea, believing that this is, in their opinion, a reward for terrorism. The UK is also reluctant to put too much support in the unreformed Palestinian power.

So the UK delayed time. On Thursday night, the Prime Minister issued a statement saying: “It is clear to us that statehood is an integral right of the Palestinian people. The ceasefire will put us on the path to recognizing the Palestinian state and a two-state decision that guarantees peace and security for Palestinians and Israel.”

In other words, there must be at least cessation of fire before recognition is possible.

Last week, Foreign Minister David Lami told deputies of the International Development Committee that the recognition should be part of the two -state security process – a political settlement based on two individual states defending the rights of Palestinians and Israelis security.

“No country has veto our decisions,” he said. “If and how to admit this decision. I just do the fact that the act of recognition does not give you two states; it is a symbolic act.”

The problem is that, according to UK officials, this decision has moved from the diplomatic sphere to the political. In other words, the government is now under high pressure from the deputies.

Whenever the ministers defend the status of the community in the House, they will attack all sides, deputies, calling for recognition. Joint letters for Downing are writing diplomats of retired and coalition of deputies. The Foreign Affairs Committee also issued a support report.

Even the ministers of the cabinet join. Earlier this week, Health Minister Wes Stryen told deputies that he hoped that the international community “recognizes Palestine’s state as long as the Palestine state remains.” This raised the eyebrows to Whitehol, because the formulation firmly retreated by the official position of the office, which recognizes only “at the point of maximum impact”.

So, all eyes are now on what the British government decides. If this cannot follow French leadership, it can risk the votes and uprisings in parliament. One official offered to me may well follow the well -being reform as the next big question that causes the oil uprising.

The risk is that, in turn, Britain monitors France and delayed the recognition without significant diplomatic benefit. He played a one -time card to have little.

More than 140 countries have already recognized Palestine as a state. Last year, Ireland, Spain, Norway and Slovenia joined them with minimal impact.

Future political declarations on Palestinian statehood may be significant. But how much they change the reality in the short term for people on Earth in gas is an open question.