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In March, the CNBC Fed Respondents raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, reduced the growth outlook by 2025 and went to their inflation.
A considerable part of the changes stem from concern about financial policy from the Trump administration, especially the tariffs that are now viewed as the highest threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The forecast for the S&P 500 for the first time decreased since September.
32 respondents, which include funding, strategists and analysts, increased the likelihood of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number dropped to a three -year minimum and seemed to reflect the initial optimism after the presidential election Donald Trump. But, as in many surveys of consumers and business, the likelihood of recession shows considerable concern of the worldview.
“We had a lot of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned that Trump’s agenda has come down from the rails from the trade policy,” said the Ironsides Macroeconomics Bars. “So, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch.”
“The degree of instability policy is unprecedented,” said John Donaldson, a fixed income director in Haverford Trust.
The average GDP forecast by 2025 decreased to 1.7% with 2.4%, which ended with a consistent increase in the three previous surveys concerning September. The prognosis of the gross domestic product bounces up to 2.1% in 2026 according to previous forecasts.
“The risks of consumer expenses are disgusted,” said Neil Datta, Head of Economic Research in the Renaissance Macro -Research. “Along with the frozen housing market and less expenses for state and local authorities, there is a meaningful shortage of the current estimates of 2025 GDP.”
Fed rate reduce the worldview
Most continues to believe that the federal reserve system reduces rates at least twice and does not go on a hike, even if they face constantly higher prices and weaker. This year, three quarters are predicted by two or more points. The part of the reason is that two -thirds believe that tariffs will lead to a one -time price increase, not a wider outbreak of inflation. But the uncertainty of the policy has created a broader range of views on the Fed than usual, and 19% believe that the Central Bank does not reduce at all.
However, higher tariffs and weaker growth are the Fed dilemma.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “really stuck here from the tariffs,” said Peter Baokwar, Chief Investment Director Bleakley Financial Group. “If it is more concerned about the growth of them and reduces the rates as the unemployment grows, but then Trump removes all tariffs, he jumped over the gun.”
More than 70% of respondents believe that tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs and growth. Thirty -four percent 34% say tariffs reduce US production, and 22% say they will not change. Thirty -seven percent of respondents believe that tariffs for greater production. More than 70% believe that the Department of State efforts to reduce government employment is bad for growth and jobs, but will be modestly deflated.
“The global trade war, negligent goes down to public jobs and financing, aggressive immigrants and dysfunction at DC threatens to push what was exclusively fulfilled by the economy in the recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics.
