Five things standing on the map in Trump and Putin talks, high -level

Trump’s central goal on Friday – Putin to cease fire, but what form it may take, what promises can be made and what “red lines” may be crossed – especially territorial concessions and security guarantees – will reach the transaction.

“The termination of the war in Russia-Ukraine remains one of the foreign targets of President Trump, and on Friday, the anchor negotiations with Putin caused the expectation of the main diplomatic breakthrough,” Gelim Croft, head of the global goods strategy and Mena research on the RBC markets said on Wednesday.

“The alleged points of discussion of the transaction are generally similar to what used to swim; in return for the cessation of its military offensive, Russia obviously seeks to preserve Crimea and the entire eastern region of the Donbass of Ukraine, as well as to ensure the final end of NATO Kiev,” she said in an e -mail of comments.

Ukraine and Europe brutally pushed away from the “maximalist” territorial concessions that Russia can seek in return for the ceasefire agreement.

Last week, Trump is a tide of confusion and concern, hesitating the thorny question, talking about the potential of “Earth replacement” to Ukraine, and obliging to return as much as possible.

Ukraine and European leaders on Wednesday urged Trump to disagree with Putin’s demands for the world after an emergency virtual summit.

For his part, President Vladimir Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is enshrined in its constitution. Any changes in this should be approved by a referendum that must be allowed by the Ukrainian parliament, making the process potentially rich.

There is another option: in that Ukraine is actually Russian control over the four regions that it is widely occupied, not the recognition of de Yura (legal and official). But again, as “fair and lasting” peace can be preserved in Ukraine, and who is the police will probably be a bone of dispute.

The fate of Ukraine’s territorial integrity not only affects Ukraine but the rest of Europe, regional leaders say. They claim that giving Putin a piece of neighboring the neighboring effectively redraws the borders of Europe.

Ukraine strives for membership in the European Union (as sold as NATO, although it is regarded as ambitions too far), both Kiev and the EU claim that if Russia gives a piece of Ukrainian territory, it will regroup its strength and use the territory as a pulse for the future invasion of Ukraine. This may mean that Europe has war on its border.

EU leaders want to participate in any ceasefire transaction and suggested watching peace. Russia has rejected the idea, and the Euro -Trump may not have the concern of the region at the forefront of its mind that will come on Friday.

“The fact that Europeans are trying to consolidate as a prerequisite for a transaction with Russia (ceasefire, monitoring mission”, “Ironclad” security guarantees) can catch up after the US-Russia summit, “Karsten Nickel, Deputy Director for Studies.

“Regardless of the results, Trump could dare to provide much more necessary military capabilities and financing afterwards. It is to create complex compromises in transatlantic relations,” he said.

After three and a half years of the war, there is definitely a desire for fighting in Ukraine to end. Millions of Ukrainians estimate that hundreds of thousands of lives were displaced. The global economy and the supply network were also overcome as a result of the conflict.

Meanwhile, Russia has quite effective treatment of international sanctions and has oil buyers, which finances its military machine similar to China and India, refusing to isolate its ally. So, one of the key issues on Friday, Putin is ready to play the ball when it comes to the end of the war, and to what extent does he need?

“From Putin’s point of view, the task is quite prose: just sit and wait for the desired result.

Putin’s position on the eve of the meeting looks more profitable, concluded Baunov: “Leaving to hold a meeting alone with Putin before ceasefire, Trump risks than Putin,” he said.

“There is nothing to lose in the aggressor’s diplomacy. Offering to lower the temperature without suffering a military defeat, the same aggressor begins to look like a peacemaker.”