Fed is most likely

This week, officials of the Federal Reserve may express their views on future interest rates, as well as the impact that will have tariffs and shocks in the Middle East on the economy.

While any direct interest rates seem incredible, at the policy meeting, which ends on Wednesday, important signals that can still move the markets will be presented.

Among the biggest things you need to observe whether the Federal Open Market Members will follow their previous forecast of the two decreases this year Jerom Powell To the fact that the White House was agreed to facilitate the monetary policy.

“The main message of the Fed at the June meeting will be that it remains comfortable in standby mode,” said the Bank’s bank economist, Bhava, in the note. BOFA said he expects the Fed to not shrink this year, but will leave open opportunities for one decline. “Investors should focus on the Powell to take over the softening work data, recent benign inflation and the risks of permanent inflation caused by the tariff.”

The “point” network in the speed of the speed of individual members will be the front and the center for investors.

In the latest update in March, the Committee showed that this year the equivalent of a two -year reduction in the item, which corresponds to modern market pricing. However, it was a close bell, and only two participants who changed their approach would knock the average forecast to one cut.

The meeting stems on a complex geopolitical background, on which the influence of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on inflation has so far been minimal but incomprehensible to the future. At the same time Trump and other administration officials intensified the call Fed to lower tariffs.

In addition, Israeli-Iran conflict Threatens destabilizing a global energy picture, providing another variable through which you can navigate politics.

“We expect the chairman of Powell to repeat his message from the conference” My “,” Bhava said. “The politician is in a good place, and the Fed is in no hurry to act.”

However, the landscape may change quickly.

While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, Can report on wages with a non -noble salary showed a sequel when gradually mitigation on the job market. Most Recent inflation data They also showed that the tariffs did little to affect the prices at least in Macrasmos, adding another stimulus for the Fed to at least think about mitigation.

“We are in the world of disinfecting,” said former President Dallas Robert Kaplan in an interview with CNBC last week. “If it were not for these future tariffs that will pass through and pass through, I think the Fed will be on their front leg that seek to shorten the speed.”

As things go to the meeting, the pricing markets in the next section, which will come in September, which will become an annual anniversary aggressive Reduction of the item per half -K FOMC created against the backdrop of concern in the labor market. By the end of the year, the Committee added two more steps in a quarter and held.

In today’s climate, “Trade tension has decreased slightly, inflation was low, and the rigid data showed only limited signs,” the Goldman Sachs economist David Maxi wrote.

Goldman sees how the Fed adheres to its two -cut forecast, but the firm’s economists said they expected to see only one.

“We are sure that we still go on the way to possible speed decreases, because apart from tariffs, inflation news was actually quite soft. Although the previous reduction is possible, the peak of summer tariff impact on the monthly prints of inflation, it is likely to be too fresh to fall.

Officials will also update their work, inflation and gross domestic product.

Goldman sees how Fomc takes inflation up to 3% in all 2024, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than in March. The firm also sees a slight decrease in GDP growth to 1.5%with 1.7%, and the mites are up to 4.5%at unemployment.

The officials will then use the summer to watch the data and judge what they will do at the end of the year, said Krishna Guh, head of the Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy Evercore ISI.

“We believe that FOMC will retain its expectation on June on Wednesday, emphasizes that it still expects to learn much more about the development of perspective over the next few months, and continues to point to September as the next tariff decision,”-said in the Guh’s note.