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The economic influence of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and will lead to recession this summer, Apollo Global Management reports.
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist Apollo, posted terms in presentation for customers This showed if the impact of the tariffs announced by the president Donald Trump can get into the US economy. Based on the time of transport necessary for goods from China, US consumers can start noticing trade in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.
“The investigation will be blank shelves in US stores for several weeks, as well as disadvantages for consumers and firms that use Chinese products as intermediate goods,” the customer’s note wrote on Friday.
Tariff for recession:
- April 2: Tariffs announced, trips from China to China to slow
- Early to mid -May: container bodies in US ports stop
- In the middle to the end of May: the demand for transportation stops, leading to empty shelves and smaller
- End of May to early June: Disfilting in the trucking and retail industries
- Summer 2025: Recession
Source: Apollo Global Management
To support the idea that the US economy is on the verge of recession, the presentation also included data showing new business orders, profit prospects, and capital expenses have fallen sharply over the past weeks.
Trump’s administration stopped some tariffs announced on April 2, but even higher duties in China. Finance Minister Scott Baby Recognized Monday on CNBC “Box for Squawk“What is the current tariff confrontation with Beijing” is “unstable. “The Leion is there goods from China Now 145%are exposed.
China is not the only source of consumer goods, but it plays a major role in the US economy. US imported $ 438.9 billion of goods From China in 2024, reports the US trade representative, immediately put it behind Mexico and above Canada On the list of trading partners on this metric.
Although many on Wall -Rate now say the recession for the US is feasible In 2025 socks projections are toward a more pessimistic side. The infant said the administration is waiting for “Period of detoxification“For the economy from the trade negotiations, but not necessarily a recession.
There are also some evidence of “pulling forward” in the orders before tariffs were announced that could store goods on the shelves longer than the Apollo’s set terms.
“Do not expect that the reserves are still increasing on Monday, and demand is slowing down,” said Bernstein Anehe Sherman analyst in the client’s note on Monday.
– Michael Bloom in CNBC made a report.
