Elon Musk tweets so much, people bet more than $1M a week to guess how many posts

Will Elon Musk post 400+ tweets this week? More than 800? Estimate correctly and you can end up with a lot of money if you have to support your opinion by buying “shares” in Polymarket.

U Polymarket sometimes controversial is one of the “prediction markets” of the Internet. It’s a great – and quite sophisticated – way to put your money where your mouth is when you feel the urge to state an opinion on the internet. Even if your opinion is “I bet Musk tweets over 400 times this week.”

Indeed, Musk’s tweeting “market” on the site is so active that it has been given a top-level site link and is repeated weekly. This week’s market, which ends on January 17, has already made more than $1.9 million in trading volume and regularly reaches more than $1 million. This does not mean that you will win a lot of money. Your payout will depend on how many shares you buy if your tweet volume hypothesis is true. (Polymarket did not respond to our request for comment on how much money this market paid.)

Site records show it has been a weekly market since at least June. And there is a second where users can bet on the number of tweets ranging between 300 and 550+ in increments of 25 tweets.

Discussions on the market get serious too, sounding a bit like horseplayers talking about their choice of ponies. For example, on Tuesday, user “Rogu” analyzed “Current tweets per day is at 50, on pace to hit 350. To reach 400 + needs an average of more than 65 per day for the remaining time. While it is a little better, it is not * that much * .With the upcoming test flight of Starship, I might be tweeting a little more than these last few days.

Rogu refers to the launch of SpaceX Starship Flight 7, which is scheduled for January 15.

Polymarket’s main competitor, Kalshi, also has a top-level Elon Musk link, but links to all kinds of wanna-bet-type opinions about Musk, ranging from what his roles might be in the new administration to guess about his future net worth. (People can no doubt bet or buy shares on these things in Polymarket as well.)

But how much time Musk will spend on his favorite, personal social networking site has been a constant favorite. And it has to be one of the dumbest but funnest ways people spend their money on the internet.