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Guests and visit Mingle and go through the atrium during spring meetings of the IMF/World Bank in the IMF headquarters in Washington, Colombia District, April 24, 2025.
Jim Watson | AFP | Gets the image
After many years where the pandemia, supply chains, energy and inflation prevail, a new topic has appeared this year, heading the World Bank and international monetary funds: tariffs.
The IMF set the tone starting a week with the release of the latest economic forecasts that reduced growth prospects for Us. UK and Many Asian countries. While economists, central bankers and politicians were engaged in panels and behind -the -scenes talks, many are trying to find out if there will be trade tensions between China and the US be – Either Probably no – Cooling.
Politicians from the European Central Bank, with which CNBC spoke this week, were widely detained by a brass tone, which testifies to them seen as interest rates continue to fall and little risks up Inflation of the Eurozone zone. However, all emphasized the current high level of uncertainty, the need to maintain monitoring data and high risks for growth prospects – moods were also repeated Governor Bank of England Andrew Bailey in an interview CNBC Thursday.
This week, these were some major ECB members.
Christina Lagard, President of the European Central Bank
On inflation and monetary policy:
“We head to our (inflation) targets during 2025, so the disinfectant process is so much that we are approaching completion. But we have shocks, you know, and the shocks will be muted on GDP. This is a negative shock for demand.”
‘Pure influence on inflation will depend on what opposition Europe is eventually accepted. Then we have to consider (German) fiscal push According to investment protection, the infrastructure fund. “
“You know what we saw consecutive movementsof us tariffs), and then a intermissionAnd then some release. So we need to be very careful … either we cut or pause, but we will depend on the data to the extreme. “
On market steps:
“When we made our forecasts, we believed that … the dollar would be grateful, the euro is depreciated. This is not what we saw. And there were some counter-intuitive movements in different categories.”
“The German market was obviously shocked in a positive way of the program soon, which will be created by the German government, committing the defense with a commitment to the Great Infrastructure Development Fund.”
Claes Node, President of the Bank of the Netherlands
On the tariff uncertainty:
“When I have looked around for the last 14 years, in the early days of the pandemic I think it was a comparable uncertainty with what we have now.”
“In the short term, Krystalov realized that the uncertainty, which is created by the unpredictability of tariff action by the US government, works as a strong negative growth factor. In principle, uncertainty is like a tax without income.”
About inflation:
“In the short term, we will have less height. We will probably also have less inflation. As we also see, the euro estimates because energy prices have also decreased. Thus, along with some negative uncertainty of the factor in the short term crystalline it is clear that it will accelerate the disinfectant.”
“But in the medium term, the prospect of inflation is not so clear. I think that there are still these negative factors. But in the medium term you can get revenge. You can get a violation of global values that can also be inflationary in the world than in the US. In which you need to perform.
In June, the rate and market prices for two more ECB speed in 2025:
“I am fully open. I think it’s too early to take a position in June, whether it will be another incision. It will depend entirely on these forecasts.”
“I would need to see a more structured analysis of impact on the inflation profile before us, and only then can I say whether the market is fair or not.”
Robert Holzman, Governor of the National Bank of Austria
O need to wait for additional data and news on tariffs:
“We have not seen this uncertainty for many years … If only uncertainty will not fall, the right solutions we will have to restrain a number of our decisions, and thus we do not yet know which direction the monetary policy should be better transferred.”
“Before considering the data, the question in what political decisions will we make? Will we have an increase in tariffs? Will we have a strong increase in tariffs?
On April Reduction Speed Reduction:
“I think there is a wide consensus (tariffs). But of course, people are different on the outskirts.”
“My assessment is that at this time it was not yet clear to what extent (tariff) counter -officers are accepted. Because when in Europe, prices in Europe can increase. Without counter -times, the price pressure is going down. And yet we do not know the direction.”
In interest rates:
“I think that if the recent noises about the arrangement (in trade) were to be true, in which case it is probably more up to a shortage than prices. But it can be changed with different solutions and the result we even imagine that we are in () in the other direction.
“There may be additional reductions this year, but the number is still great.”
Mārtņš kazaks, governor of the Latvian bank
About the possibility from tariffs:
“With all this uncertainty and vulnerability, it is also a time for Europe.”
“It is a time for Europe to realize all aspects of being economic superpowers and to become a truly full political and geopolitical superpower, and it requires all decisions that have not been fully fulfilled in the past.”
“This requires political will, political guts to make these decisions, and strengthen the European economy and affirm its place in the world.”
About market reaction to tariffs:
“So far, it seems to be orderly … But if you look at the overflow into Europe, the financial markets work more beautiful, we have not seen how to spread and what is similar.”
“But in terms of macro -streets, this uncertainty is extremely increased in the sense that, given the possible results, numerous scenarios and their likelihood are very similar to the basic (tariff) scenario.”
