Deep inside the economy, more prices on the stickers start rising from the tariffs

On the surface of the US economy prices are higher. A Recent inflation data On Friday, the government showed more than the forecast. On Thursday Nik Increasing prices still needed to implement.

Inside the US, the US distribution networks are generally there are fewer items from the trade war, but more of the goods that are increasing.

“Now we see many customers increase prices,” said Ryan Martin, the president for distribution and fulfillment of his logistics.

While the price tags are located on the manufacturer’s items, Martin said that over the last month, his company began to re -include “millions of products for many customers”, “items, starting from clothing to consumer products, were prepared for delivery or immediate transport to the shops.

Depending on the product, the price increase ranges from 8%-15%, he said.

“This creates additional inflation,” Martin said. It also occurs in e -commerce, he said, although the price change is displayed on the Internet, not on the product.

A new survey of shoe distributors and retailers for Q2 shows that 55% of respondents expect their average retail price will rise from 6% -10% in 2025 as a result of tariffs.

Martin says he was the last time he saw this number of re -ticket during the pandemic, and it was much higher.

“At the time, it is more expensive, transport, work and amount of products,” he said. “We have seen an increase in all products, including food and drinks,” he said. “Repeated exchange was from 30%-40%”.

It is not only higher prices but also less inventory

With modern problems about trading uncertainty and softness of consumers, retailers and manufacturing customers manage the inventory, reducing the number of SKU and importing less SKU they store. Economic Bureau said the gross domestic product decreased by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025.

“The total trace of the stock is smaller,” Martin said. “You look at three months of inventory in your hands against six.”

Data supply chain from the warehouse sector and an increasing number of empty containers for the ports indicate the easier peak season (summer accumulation of inventory for school purchase periods and festive purchases).

According to the index of logistics executives, the stock level is 6% per month.

Comparing the testimony from the first half of June to the next month, the growth of the stock began to slow down, which suggests that the increase in early June was temporary, according to Zachary Rogers, an associate professor for supply chains at Colorado University of Colorado. “We have not seen a lot of shifts in transport,” said Rogers. “The composition capacity really moved from a soft contraction to easy expansion.”

There is no data for the whole June month yet, but Rogers said it is very unlikely that the results will change in any significant way. “We are far enough that we basically know where they will be,” he said.

Rogers explained that the soft extension observed at the beginning of the month was in line with the containers that were processed in the ports. From the US tariffs from the tariffs from the tariffs from the tariffs from the tariffs from the tariffs from the tariffs from the US tariffs. 50% tariff for Chinese goods is still too high for many retail sellers, even after a recent pause in the highest tariffs Donald Trump threatened with Chinese goods.

Now the ports of the west coast see a small blow The containers begin to arrive on the holidays. But, leaning on the port -angeles, an optimizer that monitors the ocean trading designed for Parts Los -Andgeles and Long Bich, July will be lower than July 2024.

“This is noteworthy because the July, which goes on in August, is when we expect the figures to increase,” Rogers said.

The situation on the east coast is different.

The port of New York and New Jersey, the largest port on the east coast, published its monthly container data on Thursday, showing that the port processed 774 698 feet equivalent units or teus.

“Tariffs are definitely not going to influence us where they will be on the west coast, because we do not depend on China as much as our colleagues on the west coast,” said Bethann Roeing, director of the New York and New Jersey port, said CNBC. “We have already observed an increase in volumes from Europe, Southeast Asia, India and Vietnam. I do not guess that in July a significant surge, but we will see a strong volume.”

But Runny added that the change is relatively small regarding the refurbishment of supplies in Europe and Southeast Asia. “We see, perhaps, 1% change per year,” she said. “Cumulatively this is influenced. But we certainly do not see huge changes in the route, although it is clear that many profitable owners (US companies) change search or diversification.”

Empty containers for delivery are sitting in the ports longer

Another leading indicator of future cargo orders is the movement of the devices. Empty trade in containers is necessary to move the export flow. CNBC analysis blank containers shows that it does not fasten the voids, leaving the ports of Los -Andgeles and Long Bich to return to replenish.

During the pandemic, the voids were a priority of returning to Asia so that they could be replenished and exported back to the United States.

“The fact that so many empty containers are still sitting in ports also suggests that importers do not expect our usual peak in August-September,” Rogers said.

Transporting and drawing will see a certain activity at wholesale/distributed level throughout the Q3, thanks to the wave of goods coming to the ports, and these goods eventually go to the sellers in September and October. But Rogers added: “At this point, it is very unlikely that we will see the usual peak season.”

“Even today, we already have a ton of inventory, and with the tariffs that are still there, I would expect imports, especially those related to production, will be lower than we could expect at the beginning of the year,” he said.

Another warning is a dramatic drop on average in the Ocean rates on the Trans-Pacific route from the Far East to the west coast of the United States after the previous spike in June. According to Peter Sanda, the main analyst of shipping in Xeneta, the average point of the point fell from the Far East to the West coast of the United States by 39%. “The transpile ocean in the United States is a key field for carriers when it comes to China’s export, so the point rates decreased more and faster when they were eager, returning the power to this trade in direct decline in 145%,” he said.

Sand said it was just a matter of time before the shippers did the same on the US eastern coast, and the stain speed also begins to fall sharply.

This rollback in the orders is closely monitoring the economists. In a recent note, the Oxford economy wrote that consumer goods continued to decline on the side of imports by $ 4.3 billion after the fall of $ 33 billion in April. “It was partly offset by the income in AUTO, while other categories were mostly unchanged. We expect imports to decline during the year, as effective tariff rates remain elevated and the economy slows down,” the statement said.

“He is hesitant – the best solution with the shippers from all tariff conversations,” Martin said. “Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or understands the cost structure. It is better to have stormy reserves in this case,” he added.

Correction: According to the index of logistics executives, the stock level is 6% a month per month. The previous version of this article incorrectly applied the index.