Chinese trade for us can decrease by $ 485 billion: tariff simulator

According to the tariff simulator, the world trade shift changes.

Trade negotiations between the US and China resumed on Monday In Stockholm.

Given China’s dominant position in trade with the US, this decline will be greater than the total decline in world exports to the US if all countries are taken into account.

The forecast is based on the latest tariffs implemented between the US and China, and how global trade can be refined. Currently, the US is charged 51% of Chinese goods tariffs and 32.6% of tariffs are exporting to China. In the US is there threatened much higher tariffs for Chinese goods If a transaction is not reached by August 12, which can accept tariff rates up to 145%.

US Government data shows The total level of Chinese imports is $ 438.9 billion In 2024.

After recent transactions with Japan and tariffs for EU installation by 15%, President Trump said on Monday that it is that Basic tariff rate Probably entered between 15%-20%.

‘Countries will have a natural tendency to redirect their trade relations from the US in many of these scripts and founder of Datawheel, who built Tariff Simulator OEC.

Countries related to the Chinese industrial economy will also experience weakness of US export. Vietnam, a country that has used the China Plus supply chain strategy that allowed manufacturers to avoid some tariffs for Chinese goods, can see exports to 102 billion to 2027.

The South Korea is also projected to tariff simulators to experience $ 49 billion.

According to the analysis, goods that represent significant parts of these decreases include broadcasting equipment (-59.2 billion) and computers (-58.7 billion) and cars from South Korea (-13.5 billion).

At the same time, even if the US threatens additional tariffs on North America’s trading partners and still Failed to provide a deal with CanadaThe US will import more from Canada (+128 billion dollars) and Mexico (+77 billion), as well as from the United Kingdom (+23 billion) that recently signed a trade agreement with the US

While the current level of Chinese tariffs and Tariffs on the EU official in trade Announced on Sunday, which will increase US exports by 12% in 2027, a decrease in Chinese goods coming to the United States has already begun.

Currently, Acean Freight Data is monitoring the decline in Chinese exports coming to the United States during the trade war. If in June during a long trade war tariffs fell from a threat by 145% to 51% Increasing the volume of the container in the port of Los Angeles was short-livedAccording to recent data.

According to the weekly report from Captain J. Kipling (KIP) Louttit, Executive Director of the South California Marine Stock Exchange and road traffic service, which was up to 66.8 vessels per day, the first half of July changed in the second half of the month. Over the last weekly periods, which decreased to 58.7 a day, two days earlier last week, when the visit to the courts decreased to 55.

“This is a pretty firm leading indicator of immersion in the arrival of the container ship in the next one -day,” Luttitis wrote.

Retail groups repeatedly warned that a cycle of tariff threats and delay adds to uncertaintyAnd hesitating moving forward with orders.

According to the tariff simulator, China will also be distracted by US export, falling by 101 billion by 2027, with the largest exports in the US, including soy (-10 billion dollars), integrated schemes (-7.44 billion), raw oil (-7.33)) (-6.36 billion dollars) and cars (-$ 5.09 billion).

During the last trade war with the United States, China participated in trade expansion talks with the ASEAN countries (Southeast Asia Association). The tariff simulator has designed that Russia would win the lion’s share of increasing trade with China, amounted to $ 69.8 billion. Other countries with which China expand its trade relations include Vietnam ($ 34.4 billion), Saudi Arabia ($ 28 billion), South Korea ($ 27.9 billion), Australia ($ 24.6 billion) and Japan ($ 21.4).

IKEA, Walmart US-Cinin

According to the bills that present containers that detail the company import and export information, and the country of origin of the products, IKEA imports the most supplies from China (14.6%) and then goes Walmart (8.6%), Costco (5.8%), fresh fruits (5.52%) and Amazon (3.83%).

Furniture is the highest rating imported by IKEA (18.2%). Light synthetic cotton fabrics are the highest Walmart (64%) imports.

Among the US states, Texas and California are the main blow to reduce trade with China. Texas is the main state in the US for export to China, $ 954 million, led by electric machines and electronics ($ 222 million), mineral fuels, mineral oils and distilled products ($ 204 million), as well as technicians, mechanical instruments and details).

California ranks second among the states, with optical, photo -and medical equipment as the main exports of the state to China, at $ 179 million. Electric equipment and electronics ($ 125 million) and machines, mechanical devices and details ($ 93 million) – another main exports from California to China. Oregon is # 3 among the states, and $ 458 million to China, led by electronics and electronics ($ 397 million).

Former Trade Secretary Carlos Guterres said at CNBC that the current trade disruptions will be a simple rise in the history of world commerce, but warns: “Protestantism does not protect. It deprives nation of its vitality.”