China’s GDP grew 5.4% in the fourth quarter, beating market expectations

China’s economy is expected to grow 5% year-on-year in 2024, with a pick-up in the final quarter of the year as a series of stimulus measures kicked in to help Beijing meet its growth targets.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the fourth quarter beat expectations at 5.4%. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated growth of 5.0% in the last quarter.

This was faster growth compared to 4.6% in the third quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter, 5.3% in the first quarter.

Economic growth for the whole year was lower compared to 5.4% growth in 2023 after the pandemic. In the composition of the annual revision of previous figuresThe Bureau of Statistics at the end of December revised the growth of GDP in 2023 to 7.4%, according to the calculation of official data by CNBC.

The statistical office, however, warns: “We must be aware that the negative effects of the external environment are increasing, internal needs are insufficient.” He called for the implementation of “a more active and effective macro policy”.

In December, retail sales jumped 3.7% from a year earlier, beating the Reuters forecast of 3.5%. Industrial production rose 6.2% from a year earlier, compared with expectations of 5.4%, highlighting China’s imbalance between domestic production and weak demand.

Annual fixed investment rose 3.2% in 2024, shy of a 3.3% rise forecast in a Reuters poll, as property investment fell to 10.6% from January to November.

The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December from 5.0% in the previous month.

In 2024, disposable incomes of urban residents will increase by 4.4%, and rural incomes by 6.3%.

The country’s population will decrease by 1.39 million in 2023 to 1.408 billion people.

China sought to increase economic growth and achieved adopted a number of measures in the direction this is the end.

Since the end of September, the Chinese authorities have called to stop the fall in real estate, lower interest rates and announced a a five-year financial package worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to ease the local government funding crisis. Beijing has also expanded a program for consumers to trade in used cars and home appliances and buy new ones at a discount.

Senior executives have promised to adopt “active” fiscal measures and “moderately accommodative” monetary policy for the current year.

Some analysts expect incentives may begin this year, but will take longer to see significant impact.

The slump in real estate and uncertainty about future incomes weighed on consumer spending and business confidence, raising concerns about deflation.

Consumer inflation in China remained just above zero, while wholesale prices fell for the 27th straight month in December. Official data showed last week.

The government is expected to unveil official growth targets for 2025 and additional stimulus measures at the annual sittings of parliament in March.

Economists predict that China will hold its own The goal of GDP growth until 2025 will be about 5%if not slightly lower.

Friday’s data comes days before Donald Trump’s inauguration as the next US president on January 20. Trump said that shortly after taking office he plans to introduce additional tariffs minimum 10% on Chinese goods. He has too assigned several Chinese hawks for key cabinet positions.

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