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On March 6, 2025 in Barcelona, Spain, March 6, 2025, the G1 robot in the 2025 mobile Congress.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Gets the image
American technological giants love Tesla and Nvidia Races on the development of humanoid robots are conducting, emphasizing their importance to the future economy. But analysts warn that they are already at risk of losing China.
It is expected that the so-called humanoid robots operating on artificial intelligence are designed to remind people in the form and movement-proclaim a number of cases of use, such as filling in industry and services.
The excitement of the investor Around the robots grows against the background Increased mention From technical leaders such as Jensen Huang Nvidia, who led the “General Robotics” era earlier this month when announced a new a portfolio of technology For the development of a human robot.
In the production of the robots themselves, the Tesla Humanoid Robot project appears to lead to the USA, in the USA, with the CEO Elon Musk announces plans produce about 5000 units This year.
While the ambitious plans Musk can give her a foot competitor as AppTronik and Boston Dynamics, which do not yet enter the mass market, it will face fierce competition from the usual source: China.
Jensen Juan, co-founder and chief executive director of Nvidia, tells about Humanoids during the CES 2025 in Las Vegas on January 6, 2025.
Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Gets the image
Last month Robotics based on Hangzhou last month sold two humanoid robots to consumers on the e -commerce platform JD.com as For the local media. Meanwhile, in Shanghai robotics Agibot, also known as Zhiyuan Robotics, corresponding to Optimus’s goal to produce 5000 robots this year, The Morning post South China.
How like Chinese electric car Byd start exceeding growth tesla Experts say that such dynamics can play in the humanoid robotics.
“China has the potential to repeat its destructive effects from the EV industry in the humanoid space. However, this time the breakdowns can go far beyond one industry, potentially transforming the labor itself,” said Rick Knutsen, Semianalysis analyst, an independent research company and analysis.
Dancing at the competition?
In the research note in February Morgan Stanley estimates that the current costs for the construction of humanoid robots can vary from $ 10,000 to $ 300,000 per unit, given different configurations and downward requirements.
However, Chinese companies are already reduced by US competitors in terms of cost due to the highest savings from scale and production capabilities, Knutsen said.
For example, Untree released its G1 Humanoid robot For consumers in May with a starting price of $ 16,000. For comparison, Morgan Stanley suggests that the cost of selling Humanoid Robot Optimus Gen2 Tesla can be about $ 20,000, but only if the company is able to scale, reduce its research cycle and use cost effective components from China.
In January, Untree made a great splash in the robot space when 16 high -performance humanoid robots H1 joined a group of human dancers to celebrate Lunar New Year In the demonstration broadcast on national television.
But there are signs that China’s progress in robots goes much further. Over the past five years, in February, Morgan Stanley has shown that the country has led the world in patents mentioned by “Humanoid”, with 5,688 patents compared to 1483 from the US.
Big players such as Xiaomi And EV creators such as Byd, Cherry and XPeng are also involved in the Humanoid space.
“Our study believes that China continues to show the most impressive progress in the humanoid robotics, where startups benefit from the established supply networks, opportunities to adopt a local and strong degree of support for the national government,” the recording reads.
Beijing increasingly supported the space, and the state departments are promoting their development. In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Issued recommendations To the space, calling for “production on scale” by 2025.
According to the Mina Lee, the head of the Great China’s Bofa Global Research Automobile and Industrial Studies, China views humanoid robots as an important industry from its potential to mitigate the upcoming lack of work.
“I think in the short term, three to four years, we will see that humanoid robots are initially used in production lines for comparison of some workers, and in the intermediate period we will see that they are gradually spreading in the service sector,” he said.
Musk predicted that he would have more than 1,000 or several thousand Optimis robots running in Tesla In 2025. According to Chinese state mediaEV manufacturers such as Byd and Geely have already launched some Untree humanoid robots at their factories.
Lee said the increase in acceptance would be the same as a “very rapid” reduction in the costs on the components, also noting that China owns about 70% of the supply chain for these components.
According to the Semianalysis report earlier this month, Untree G1 – “The only viable humanoid robot on the market” is completely unleashed from the American components.
The report warns that China is the only country that occupies economic awards of intellectual robotics systems, including humanoid robots that “poses an existential threat to the US because it comes to all opportunities.”
“To catch up, American players must quickly mobilize strong production and industrial base, whether it is domestic or through the Union countries … For Tesla and similar firms, it can be reasonable to start a reshuffle or” friendship “, their component and production to reduce dependence on China,” said Semianalysis “Knuhtsen.
The Bank’s Bank’s analysts have predicted in the research note this month that the deployment of humanoid robots will quickly accelerate, through the development of II, and by 2060, world annual sales reached 1 million units and 3 billion humanoid robots.
