Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
The Iranian missile system is displayed next to the flag with the image of Iran’s High leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the leader of the “Hatsbala” of the late Hassan Nasurala, on the street in Tehran, Iran, October 2, 2024.
Majid Asgaripour | Through Reuters
The beginning of Iran may look quite different during the second term of President Donald Trump – whether for a good or very sick Tehran.
In the strange steps, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to conclude an agreement with Iran – most recently, with the help of a letter to the High leader of Iran Ayatal Ali Khamenei last week, asking both leaders to “negotiate” on the North East Nuclear program. This happens unlike seven years before, back in 2018, when Trump, which pulled the US from the initial nuclear transaction 2015, causing the US Iranian relations.
“I would like the deal to be made with Iran on non -nuclear.
However, Trump has simultaneously launched his “maximum pressure” campaign in the country that has been exported from the moment of overcoming the position. Iran’s High leader Ayatollah Khamenei, meanwhile, refused to abandon Tehran’s nuclear program and abandoned Trump’s information work. On Saturday, the Iranian leader condemned the attempts of unnamed “bullying” to make a deal and promising that his government would not negotiate under pressure.
Iran is under pressure -In your own spiral economy, the dramatic loss of regional allies, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and from the weakening of proxy, such as Hezbolla in Lebanon, after Israel.
But while its strength in these areas has decreased significantly than during the first term Trump, its leverage in the other aspect – a large volume of the nuclear material that it created – is now much greater.
“Significant problems” over weapons development
Iran enriches and accumulates uranium at the highest level, which causes the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Nuclear Caler, to issue numerous warnings.
“Iran remains the only nonsense of the weapon that enriches uranium on this level, causing considerable concern about the development of potential weapons,” but News From March 3 read.
In the photo taken on November 10, 2019, it was shown that workers at the Bushera Nuclear Power Plant in Iran during the official ceremony to start work in the second reactor at the facility. Bushera is currently working on imported fuel from Russia, which is carefully controlled by the UN Atomic Energy Agency.
Atta Kenare | AFP via Getty Images
‘Iran continues to enrich (uranium) as part of his lever construction exercisest According to CNBC House Chatham House. “The more he has, the more he can unload, and it can be a compromise for any transaction that will go down the line.”
Tehran insists that its program is intended only for civil energy. But Iran’s nuclear enrichment reached 60% of the Cleanliness, according to the IAEA, – sharply higher than the intended enrichment limit In the 2015 nuclear transaction and a short technical step from the cleanliness level is 90%.
“The country, enriched by 60%, is a very serious thing. Only countries that make bombs reach this level“,” said IAEA leader Rafael Grosi in 2021.
According to the 2015 nuclear transaction, officially named a joint comprehensive action plan (JCPOA), Iran has committed 300 kilograms in limiting the level of 3.67% of uranium enriched.
Iran Now almost 22 times than the material Energy intelligence reports with reference to the IAEA. And Trump did not rule us or Israeli military strikes on Iran to prevent its bomb construction.
Mutual distrust
However, in Iran there is a dominant advantage to the conclusion of a transaction that will raise sanctions, says Bijan Hajpur, economist and partner of a partner in Vienna Counseling Eurorasian Nexus Partners.
The problem?
“There is a deep distrust on both sides,” Khajehpour CNBC said. “Especially, the public episode Zelenskyy in the oval office reminded Iranians that it would be difficult to have confidence in the potential future deal with the Trump administration.”
The visit of the White House of the Ukrainian President Valodimir Zelensky unexpectedly moved into a hot and public collision with Trump in late February.
“On the other hand,” added Hajpur, “the potential lift or reduction of sanctions would be necessary for the Iranian economy.”
But the United States and Trump now have a prevailing impact, says Ben Ben Alflu, a senior employee of the Democracy Defense Fund.
“President Trump has much greater impact now than when he first entered the office in 2017 against Iran,” said Ben Atabla. “Israel degrades some regional trusts of the Islamic Republic, and structural problems, and the prolonged US sanctions have retained the Iranian economy on the back.”
“Although the idea of ​​enhancing Iran’s nuclear capacity is not lost on me as an impact, their nuclear card is their only card to play at the moment,” he said.
Time to buy Tehran?
As for the objections of the Supreme Iranian leader to pressure negotiations, Behn claimed that the “Islamic Republic always says” no “until he says so.” He also claimed that the country “continues to enrich Uranus and … increasing his reserves of high -enriched uranium because he wants nuclear weapons,” not because he just wants to take negotiations.
“Tehran wants to capture Trump in the negotiations, whether it is right or through Russian mediation,” he said, citing the reported role that Russia asked to play Trump’s administration in potential negotiations.
“This is not to resolve nuclear matter, but to rested the maximum pressure and to create obstacles for potential Israeli or American strike.”
Instead of choosing a transaction’s conclusion or disagreeing at all, the Iran’s government is likely to choose a third option just “confused” and buy time, Vakil Tsate House.
It is at the same time “to build further use at a time when the region and the West view Iran as weak,” and better understand Trump’s priorities and conditions for negotiations, she said.
In addition, “Iran will start negotiating with Europe as a mechanism of delay for Snapback sanctions and keep the door for negotiations,” said Vakil, “while Washington develops its own strategy and priorities.”
