Can Europe give a reliable answer to Ukraine?

“This is definitely one way to focus the mind – and the wallets! Donald Trump makes us a service if We decided to think about it this way. And we can also look at the bright side. Otherwise, these times are too dark. “

The words of a diplomat from a major European country, speaking after Donald Trump turned off the military aid, which came to Ukraine on Monday. He asked him not to be called so that he could more freely share his thoughts.

Tirelessness and pace, changes to Washington can be dizzy. Not only for news consumers, but also for politicians.

Europe seeks to respond effectively.

Diplomatic activity was mad: bilateral telephone calls, European longing in London and Paris, NATO defense ministers in Brussels. The EU EU Safety summit is also scheduled this Thursday this Thursday.

This is a huge moment in European history.

Most European countries believe that the safety of all Europe, not just Ukraine’s sovereignty, goes to the map-with Russia, which seeks to dismantle the balance of power since the end of the Cold War.

Washington, which has returned Europe to security and defense from World War II, is now “not to care for the fate of Europe”, according to a man who is ready to become the next leader of the continent’s largest economy, Friedrich Merz from Germany.

But what did all European meetings and summits actually achieved?

Literally a few hours before Washington stopping the military aid of KievBritain Prime Minister Sir Kire Starmer, who takes advantage in Europe over Ukraine, announced that it was time for ‘action is not a word’. The President of the European Commission Ursul von der Leyen, meanwhile, stated that Europe should turn Ukraine into a “steel flower”, with actual additional supplies.

Can the continent really act like one? Europe is the total amount of different countries with different budgets and a variety of domestic policy and priorities.

The goal of Europe in accepting this defense stock is also twice:

For the first time, to show Donald Trump that – according to the Prime Minister of the UK – Europe will now make a “heavy lift” to protect itself. Europe hopes to persuade Trump to restart his military support for Ukraine and maintain the current US security reserve in Europe as a whole if he believes they no longer “overload” the US.

But also the leaders of Europe will need to urgently increase its own protection and support for Kyiv if Donald Trump turns away from Ukraine, and further along the line, more widely in security.

In Washington, Europe believes it makes sense to prove.

Russia also looks.

Currently, different high -profile, big, big European emergency meetings should bring rapid, impressive, practical results, otherwise Europe looks weak and vulnerable in the eyes of the Kremlin.

Moscow has already been heard about the “splits” she sees in Western unity.

Donald Trump says he trusts Vladimir Putin, but he’s scary about NATO allies and he called President of Ukraine dictator.

Russia knows that for all Europe’s conversations that it is strongly defending itself, any security expert you talk to, admits that the US still needs a short and medium term European.

That is why last week in Washington we saw the President of France and the Prime Minister of the UK separately, separately, Wooing Donald Trump.

The United States filled the yawns in European defense, left the years of chronic insufficient investment after the Cold War.

The number of troops in Europe has decreased with the end of the call in most European countries. In the US, in different parts of Europe, in different parts of NATO nuclear policy in different parts of Europe in different parts of Europe in different parts of Europe. Many of them are in a non -nuclear, large European power of Germany, which fears that Russia is strongly exposed when Donald Trump refused support.

If the United Kingdom and France can gather what they call the “coalition of the willing” – European countries that accept even a modest number of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine as soon as the ceasefire is agreed – which can stretch European armies and expose the gaps in NATO defense.

That is why Poland does not want to perform troops of this “coalition”. It states that it is necessary to keep the soldier at home to defend himself from Russia. He also hopes that the US does not pull out its troops from Eastern Europe.

But Europe also relies on the United States on military capabilities that ensure unobstructed operations. They are known as “stimuli”.

For example, Ukraine greatly relies on the US exploration to support a strong hand against Russia.

European peacekeeping or “assurance” in Ukraine will need support to create an air shield over Ukraine. Europe lacks air -to -air disposal, as well as ammunition that can withdraw air protection in Russia if necessary.

These incentives “cannot be bought from local cash” when one European politician spoke to me.

That is why the UK, France and others in Europe are so eager to keep the United States on board as long and as possible.

“Some of my esteemed European counterparts must probably be restrained in anger,” one disappointed diplomat from a high-profile nation told me.

We discussed European indignation in the treatment of the President of Ukraine On Friday, the US president and the vice president in the Oval Cabinet.

“The real guide is not to let go on the Internet. It is about finding the right words to constructively move forward, but the difficult situation.

“Do we need further support for the US in Ukraine and Europe? Do we have more in common with the US than with China?

Another fundamental issue for Europe, of course, is how much cash is needed and how quickly to increase the protection.

In Ukraine, Europe may probably easily replace the current support in the US if it leads to it.

Germany is the largest donor of military assistance to Ukraine after the United States. When other European states followed its leaders, Ukraine’s defense would be covered in the foreseeable future.

Berlin and other countries of Northern Europe express resentment to France, for example, that, according to them, it is said about the defense of Ukraine – and strongly in the leadership and strategy – but in fact it donated relatively little.

As for the broader defense costs, EU Head of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that “Europe is in the era of refining”.

She suggested that the EU only could mobilize a total of 800 billion euros per defense costs:

1. More creatively using your joint budget
2. Provision of 150 billion euros in loans in favor of EU protection as a whole, such as air defense and missiles, anti-punishment and military mobility
3. Suspension of EU financial rules to allow individual EU countries to spend more on protection

On Thursday, EU leaders are discussing its proposals and others at the summit – including whether frozen Russian assets can be applied in Europe.

But potential and very public European splits are big. Many who are subjected to internal policy of the member states.

Hungary, near the Russian administration and Donald Trump, is driving almost every debate in the EU to help Ukraine. Brussels is afraid that Slovakia goes the same.

Countries near the Russian borders do not need to explain to voters why protection costs should be high. Malenechkaya, Open Baltic countries Estonia and Lithuania are already spending more than 3% of GDP defense. They want to lift it up to 5% soon.

Meanwhile, the great European economies of Italy and Spain, geographically much further from Russia, cannot spend NATO’s minimum requirements of 2% GDP for defense.

In Germany, France and the United Kingdom, the London Fogaldata Research Group stated, most voters want to support or reduce protection costs, preferring their government to focus on other voter priorities.

But NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warns Europeans to wake up and sniff coffee breasts in Washington and Moscow.

It says European countries should spend more than 3% GDP to extend the continent effectively on the US deep dependence.

If Donald Trump comes out of Europe at all, despite Ukraine, it will mean the cost of 4-6% of GDP, according to defense experts: political, social and economic leaders of the earthquake hopes they will not have to face.