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Attempts to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine, littered with a long failure

Vitaly Shevchenko

BBC Editor -in -Chief Monitoring

Reuters Ukrainian Tanning is preparing for firing from Bogdana on his own in Russian troopsReuters

The Russian ceasefire in Ukraine lasted only 30 hours, and even then it seems to be very limited in volume, charges of violations on both sides.

Kiev said that on Sunday during the “Easter truce”, Vladimir Putin was not “alerts about air raids”, and President Floodimir Zelensky suggested that this could be a “simple” format for 30 days and possibly more.

The US tried to arrange a 30-day ceasefire, but it never entered, and this last section emphasizes the difficulty in reaching even a short pause in the fight,

Russia insisted on a number of conditions, including stopping for the refurbishment of Ukraine and a set of new fighters, as well as the “main causes of the conflict”.

One of the main factors that impede the progress of the negotiations is the long story of violated ceasefire transactions, leading to deep distrust between two neighbors.

During his Bugovo meeting with Donald Trump in February Zelensky accused Russia of violating the ceasefire agreements since 2014 and claimed that such a deal would not be carried out without security guarantees.

Russia, in turn, accuses the President of Ukraine of “incapable of” fulfilling any such agreements.

Independent experts say that Russia carries a percussion for broken grasses, although Ukraine is also responsible.

The statements of the current and former Russian officials also show that Moscow will be ready to stop hostilities only if its original goals are achieved – namely, demilitarized, neutral and non -compound Ukraine.

Invalid goes back to Russia in 2014

Breaking into Ukraine in 2014, Russia violated the Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the two countries signed in 1997. Article 2 states that the parties “respect the territorial integrity of each other and confirm the insufficiency of the existing boundaries between them.”

The war was filled with betrayal from the beginning.

General Victor Muzhanka, Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine at the time, accuses Russia of returning to agreements allowing Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the Eastern city of Ilovay in August 2014.

As a result, the escorts were brought under fire, and at least 366 Ukrainian militants were killed.

Minsk Agreements signed and violated

Vasily Maximov/AFP representatives from the first Minsk Talks signed a deal in 2014Vasily Maximov/AFP

The first transaction in Minsk in 2014 participated in Russia and pro-Russian proxy and Ukraine

The first major ceasefire agreement, Signed on September 5, 2014 in MinskHe was defeated within hours after signing, and Ukrainian sources reported about the Russian proxy attacks at the Donetsk airport. The attacks on other Ukrainian cities in the region, such as depaltseve, also continued.

This pushed The second armistice attemptKnown as a minsk-2, but it was still shorter.

In a matter of minutes, which come into force on February 15, 2015, observers of the Organization for Security and Co -operation in Europe (OSCE) reported the solution and artillery fire in Donetsk. They were located in the war zone at the request of Ukraine to monitor the security situation, including any violation of the ceasefire, but they did not say who committed them.

Next, there were a number of other unsuccessful attempts to cease fire. Again, some were broken within minutes after entering into force.

In 2016, 2017 and 2018, they included Easter reports 2016, 2016, 2017 and 2018, which were to allow schoolchildren near the front line to return to school in September, Christmas and new framework in 2015, 2017 and 2018, and “Bread Finishing” 2017, 2018 and 2018.

The “Complex ceasefire”, which came into force on July 27, 2020, lasted only 20 minutes, Kyiv reports. However, this had an impact on the fighting, by halving the number of deaths among Ukrainian soldiers next year.

Who is to blame?

Matthew Savil, Director of the Military Sciences at the Royal Institute of the United Services (Russia) in London, claims that Russia has never conscientiously entered the ceasefire.

“Russia has never sincerely treated or stop the risk of using force in finding its goals,” he says.

From the various agreements on ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, “the level of struggle rises and flowing, and Ukraine has a certain responsibility for part of it,” the BBC says.

“But the main problem was that there was always a military threat to Russian or Russian, and it reports about things.”

John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Kiev, who now works at the Washington Analytical Center of the Atlantic Council, claims that Russia, not Ukraine, was a “consistent violator” of the Minsk ceasefire agreement, the first to now attempts to create a truce in Ukraine.

Checking claims on ceasefire violations is not easy, because almost all independent journalists are prohibited by Russian parts of Ukraine.

BBC journalist Olga Ilivina, who was on Earth in the eastern region of the Donbass of Ukraine, reporting the earlier stages of the war, says that in 2016-19 there were reports of Ukraine, where they were not supposed to be Ukrainian following actions.

“All this were announced by Moscow as violations. But of course, they forgot to mention that their depaltseve in 2015 was the greatest violation of all,” – says Ilina.

Getti discovers the pro -Russian separatist position in the vicinity of the Eastern Ukrainian city Deallet, in the Donetsk region, January 28, 2015Gets the image

Russian Proxy -Silies advanced in the city of Dealtsv in 2015, despite the ceasefire

Despite the Minsk agreements, the Russian controlled forces launched an offensive against the city of Dealing, saying it was not covered by the ceasefire agreement.

Zelensky called the Minsk agreements as a “trap” for Ukraine, which allowed Russia to prepare for a full -scale invasion.

Putin says that neither Ukraine nor its Western supporters aimed to carry out Minsk transactions. Their fate was sealed when Russia declared the so -called Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” – separatist structures that helped create – as independent states.

What’s next?

Putin’s “Easter truce” was never a lull, but President Trump said: “Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week.”

Until now, there was no sign that the Kremlin would accept the US call for immediate and unconditional ceasefire, agreed by Ukraine.

Trump has already warned that if any party complicates the conversation about the ceasefire, “we will just make a pass” and let’s leave.

Russia’s demand for the “main reasons for the conflict” should be resolved, it does not pass from its original purpose of undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty – through negotiations, as well as military funds.

Vladislav Surkov, former close advisor Vladimir Putin, who was known as the “gray cardinal” of Russian politics, last year marks the Minsk agreements as a way of “legitimizing” the original division of Ukraine.

The very idea of ​​peace, he said, Vasi “not only the continuation of the war in other ways”.

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