As Trump and Trade Wars pushed Russia and Ukraine in the cold

In big times – and with trade wars that dominate the news agenda – it is easy to forget that soldiers of Russia and Ukraine continue to fight for every inch of the front in Ukraine.

The conflict in Gaza, which continues economic uncertainty in the US and Europe, as well as the changing geopolitical landscape with strengthening and opposite, “axes” also follow the mad of global politicians, pushing more than three and a half years of war in Ukraine on the agenda.

It seems more and more Russia and Ukraine remain in the cold, even negotiations this week in Istanbul, which participated in the negotiations on both sides, barely mentioning in the media. As everything stands, there is a difficult air when it comes to the direction of the war and the prospects of peace.

It seems Trump has lost his patience when July 14 stated that Ukraine could get more US weapons as long as NATO allies paid for them-and He gave Russia a 50-day term to reach a peace treaty with Ukraine. If this was not the case, he said, Russia would face “very difficult” sanctions and “secondary” tariffs up to 100%.

Those can hit Russia hard as well as its remaining trading partners, including in India and China, who buy Russian oil and gasAmong other goods.

As Russia is in Russia before September 2 to show that it is serious Despite some agreements on the Swaps of the prisoners.

Analysts are skeptical that the threat of more sanctions to move Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table, not to mention the Ukrainian Zelensky President.

There is a plot between Trump’s requirement for a peace deal and any further sanctions, said Nikolai Bileeskov, a research associate of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine.

“The Kremlin is usually involved in the fact that the US is incapable of systematic support for Ukraine’s systematic policy and pressure on Russia,” Bilieskov NBC News said earlier in July.

“Serious secondary sanctions require readiness to quarrel with China and India, which buy raw materials in Russia,” he said.

“Similarly, when it comes to weapons, speed and volume of supplies here and now are important. Therefore, there are many famous unknown. And I think Russia may believe that the US will not dare to impose secondary sanctions in Russia’s trading partners,” he added.

Ukraine, to the US and European large -scale, when it comes to supplying weapons, has shown more willingness to negotiate in recent months, calling for a ceasefire with Russia left unanswered.

It also showed a willingness to compromise, even when it comes to the retreat of the Russian Ukrainian territory to Moscow, when it is provided with something “Holy Grail” for the country: NATO membership.

But there were few signs that Russia, making small but gradual revenues on the battlefield because of its great power of the called labor and intensive war in drones, will be ready to accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine in any form.

A protest against the background of the government’s movements took place in Kiev last week to restrict the independence of two anti -corruption agencies. EU’s best policies have expressed embarrassment in motion to the exit politicoSaying that this showed a lack of commitment to seeking European democratic values. The struggle with what was endemic corruption in Ukraine is regarded as a prerequisite for EU membership.

The government in mid -July also caused allegations that Zelensky was concentrating the authorities among loyalists, which could also ignite problems among the international supporters and virtues of Ukraine.

Ukraine is part of the “critical phase of internal consolidation against the backdrop of an increasing external uncertainty”, according to Tatiana, the senior officer of the Carnegie Center of Russia and the founder of the firm of political analysis R. Father.

“Recent Battlefield developments coincide with the new American posture: Donald Trump has chosen a tactical delay for decisive interaction, quickly receding when transferring financial and political duties to Europe, “she said in the e -mail this week.

“Meanwhile, Kyiv uses this interlima to repollerate internally. The latest government reshuffle … emphasizes the intention of the Zelensky administration to strengthen political control and maintain cohesion before the impact of pessimism, institutional inertia and strengthen the working crisis,” she added.

Despite the strengthening of Western anxiety against Ukraine’s internal trajectory, the state, “international support is becoming increasingly transactional, aimed primarily at maintaining the front line rather than promoting the democratic reform.”