As the stock market came back to the new record – even with so big still worry

Aggressive trade war, escalation in the Middle East and AI -abroad competitions – none of the big curves in 2025 managed to ruin the epic return of the market from the minimum of the year when the stocks are within reach of the new recording. That’s why.

A S&P 500 In April, in April, less than 0.1% of the closing of the new record, bouncing from almost 20% of the sale. Technological oriented Nasdaq 100 Already one step forward, striking on Tuesday all the time. The last leg is higher, when investors argued with ceasefire in the Middle East, it could prevent serious violations in the world’s oil supply.

“I am surprised by the size of the rebound,” said Kevin Simpson, a capital planning portfolio. “If you take into account the geopolitical background – a constant conflict, volatility and uncertainty – I would not expect that the S&P 500 will return to new highs. Such power speaks how liquidity still remains in the system and how investors are trying to buy DIPS on the market, dominant on the megacap and enthusiasm.”

Overall, over the last four months, the wall of care has been a little. The most important thing is that President Donald Trump has abandoned the most stringent tariffs on the US key partners as countries continue to negotiate trading transactions in the summer. Previously this month is US reached a trading truce with China When Beijing agreed to supply rare land.

“We expect more trading transactions to provide additional clarity and eventually reduce the anxiety of corporate, consumers and investors,” – said in the note, Chris Haverlend, a strategist at the Wells Fargo investment institute. “Deregulation, tax reduction and reduction in short -term borrowing should further increase profits.”

In addition, corporate income has survived well, despite the uncertainty of politics. In the second quarter, the S&P 500 profit increased by 4.9%, noting the eighth in a row growth of profit per year for the index, Facttset reports.

Economy in good shape

Another reason for the market resistance is the US economy that remains solid. Unemployment remains low at 4.2% also Can report on wages with a non -noble salary showed only a minor mitigation on the job market. Most Recent inflation data They also showed that the tariffs did little to affect the prices.

The federal reserve expects to make two declines at the end of this year, according to a “point story”. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell once again confirmed The fact that he expects that politicians will remain on the hold until they better handle the tariffs on prices.

“In our basic scenario, we believe that the US will avoid recession,” Dubrov Lakos-Bujas, Chief Strategist JPMorgan, said in the note. “Recent weakness in some indicators of the labor market and limited passage from inflation can still push FED, which softens earlier than our December forecast.”

AI History is untouched

Meanwhile, the history of artificial intelligence that has supported the market for two years continues to be dissatisfied. Last season profit resumed investors’ trust – Nvidia continued to grow On a quick clip, while Big Tech’s costs have not slowed down. Investors were killed at the beginning of the year when the Deepek startup in China raised the question whether billions of dollars were justified.

“The overwhelming trend of the II remains reliable, and the recent tendencies of acceptance and monetization should be at the heart of the next AI stock stage against the background,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burardi said.

JPMorgan estimated that AI could attract 1 trillion by 2030. Dollars, including investments in generative calculations, network and repository.

However, the next few weeks can bring more volatility to the market. Investors attract by the end of the mutual tariff suspension period, while next week job data is on deck to evaluate the health of the labor market.

“Often markets, as a rule, see more volatility in conflicts, and then rally or turn to other factors as soon as it has started,” said Carol a plume, the main market strategist Bmo Private Wealth.