As the 50% tariff deadlock continues, is it a retribution for India?

US President Donald Trump 50% tariffs on India He came into force on August 27. So far, not revenge, India has outlined a carefully organized geopolitical reaction to signal its dissatisfaction with the United States.

Had a lot of advertised attempt Rapprochement with ChinaAnd the vivid images of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared the passage of limousine with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who made it through the media from the sidelines of the Tianjin Security Forum.

Internally, Modi has announced a help in the fight against exporters, and the anvil has a tax reduction to mitigate the impact on exports.

But Delhi is in an unenviable place. The tariff impasse with its largest trading partner lasts much longer than expected, trade negotiations with Washington have stopped, and already damaged ties further everyday conditions from daily conditions American officials.

The consequences are significant.

According to some estimates, prolonged 50% of tariffs can shave as much as 0.8% of India’s GDP.

India’s exports to the US can decrease by as much as $ 35 billion (26.1 billion pounds) this financial year and put hundreds of thousands of jobs Key branches Like textiles, precious stones and jewelry and skin.

Tilted to the border, the question that some ask – will Delhi be avenged? And if not, what are the least destructive options?

If past This is any precedent, India did not shy away from revenge. It imposed steep tariffs on about 28 American products, including almonds and apples in 2019, when Washington refused to exempt the country from higher taxes on steel and aluminum.

But this time the escalation of the trade war will not be in the interest of India, experts say.

“Payment is a very expensive and unproductive strategy, because in the end, India depends on the United States than in the case of return,” Ashley Telis said in an interview with the Wired Portal.

$ 86 billion, India’s exports to the US is almost three times higher than exports of US goods to India.

The symbolic answers of India “in support of the multipolar world”, including the deepening of interaction with Japan, China and Russia, were wise, Aji Srivstosta from the del-global trade research initiative reported that the direct revenge at this stage would be premature.

“India must wait at least six months to evaluate the full degree of US action – not only 50% of the tariffs, but also any additional measures that can follow, given the unpredictability of Trump and its advisers,” Srivastava said.

Delhi does not need to look further than to her larger neighbor north to understand what kind of power measures can potentially do. Tariffs in China rose to 150%when Beijing gave up revenge.

According to some experts, India should also be careful that expand tariffs for non-huds, such as services, digital trade and outsourcing in the event of escalation. They make up 6% of India’s GDP.

US Secretary -Secretary for Trade Howard Lutnik has already warned of changes in non -immigrant H1B visas, 70% of which are used by the Indians, which indicates that the influence of tense geopolitical ties has exceeded trade.

So, given that the risks of revenge are clearly very high, what are the best options for India?

The best buffer against the risk of tariffs in the US will be diversification of export markets, experts say.

It is time for India “to educate economic and diplomatic ties with countries such as Mexico, Canada and China. It also means strengthening trade and cooperation with other governments, concerned about the influence of Trump tariffs, especially in Europe and Latin America,” Kaushik Basa, former chief economic adviser to the Indian government, wrote in ” a recent piece for the project syndicate.

Srivastava agrees. He says the use of diplomatic coalitions and trade diversification is the best rate in India on “inciting pressure” on Washington, keeping the possibility of purposeful revenge only as a last resort.

There are already some signs that Delhi is actively working on accelerating other trade.

After signing a comprehensive agreement with the UK in July, Indian Trade Minister Pius Goyal said Extended stages negotiations.

But diversification will not be a quick fix.

“It will be much more difficult for the individual exporter to find new customers in the markets where they have not previously had partnerships, customers or relationships,” said BBC Sriving Jandhyala, based in Singapore.

Another problem for Indian exporters will be the cost of transition to new markets.

“If new customers or customers need specialized product line, machinery, equipment or components, Indian exporters should decide whether they should invest in this if there is a high degree of uncertainty in the future,” Yandhael said.

To a greater extent, but it will not be possible to find new trading partners, given the Mercurial Party of Trump, experts say.

Mr. Srivstosta says the government should accelerate the market diversification when applying war, doing things as leading trade missions related to sectors, alternative markets and the creation of export centers in countries such as the UAE and Mexico to bypass high tariffs in the US.

And now more than when -nothing, “internal competitiveness requires urgent strengthening through technology and quality modernization funds,” he says.

Otherwise, India will additionally give way to other Asian peers, such as Bangladesh and Vietnam who currently enjoy the best trade conditions with the US.

Keep up the BBC News India Instagram. YouTube, X and Facebook is Facebook at Facebook..