Arctic development frozen despite Trump’s interest

The Arctic recently hit the headlines after Donald Trump reiterated his desire to buy Greenland. Trump has cited national security interests, but for many the territory’s vast mineral wealth is the main attraction. Yet economic development elsewhere in the vast polar region has stalled.

Working conditions in the Arctic Ocean are extremely difficult at this time of year for Norwegian fisherman Sondre Alnes-Bonesmo.

The last time the sun rose was at the end of October, and it should not appear in the sky until mid-February.

In addition to the endless darkness, temperatures can drop below minus 40 degrees and storms can bring big waves.

Alnes-Banesmo, 30, works two six-hour shifts a day during five-week tours on a ship called the Granite. One of the largest factory trawlers fishing in the Arctic waters north of Norway and off the coast of Greenland does not stop for the winter.

It is not surprising that he prefers the endless daylight of summer. “I like it when the weather’s good because we don’t get pushed into walls and stuff like we do during storms when the waves can be pretty big,” he smiles, unattainable.

Mr. Alnes-Banesmo is a member of the so-called Arctic “fever”.

A play on words with the gold rush, it began in earnest around 2008 when a series of reports identified vast reserves of minerals and hydrocarbons in the Arctic region. Sanctuaries that, along with large fishing stocks, may continue to become more accessible as climate change reduces ice levels.

This ice reduction is also increasing opened arctic sea routes, north of mainland Canada and Russia.

So much so that in the decade from 2013 to 2023. the total recorded annual distance traveled by ships in the Arctic Sea more than twice 6.1 million to 12.9 million miles.

The long-term hope is that cargo ships will be able to move from Asia to Europe and to the US East Coast through Arctic waters over Canada and Russia.

But the question Mr. Alnes-Banesmo is now asking himself is, is he too late?

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, much of the planned economic development of the Arctic region has stalled as relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated.

“Russia had big plans in the Arctic,” says Morten Meylender-Larsen, director of Arctic operations and technology at the Norwegian firm DNV. His company sets the rules and standards for the maritime sector.

“They started building regional rescue centers complete with ships and helicopters to facilitate the delivery of gas, oil and coal to Siberia, as well as shipping through the Northeast Passage (northern Russia).

“(But) since the invasion of Ukraine, international shipping in the Northeast Passage has virtually stopped, except for a few Chinese ships,” Mr. Meylender-Larsen notes.

He adds that Norway has also stopped oil and gas exploration in the region. “It’s completely stopped,” he says.

“We do not expect further developments in the Barents Sea north of Bear Island.” This small Norwegian island is about 400 km (250 mi) north of mainland Norway.

The reduction in Norway’s Arctic ambitions pleased environmentalists, who have consistently warned about the impact of hydrocarbon drilling on both wildlife and the polar region’s fragile environment.

Last month, Greenpeace welcomed the Norwegian government’s decision to stop the first round of licensing for deep-sea mining in the Arctic waters between Norway’s Svalbard and the Jan Mayen Islands.

Commentators say that while poor relations with Russia are the main reason why Norway is cautious about investing in Arctic projects, its interest in the polar region has already cooled.

Helen Tofte, director of international cooperation and climate at the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association, says that in retrospect the prospect of Arctic shipping was “exaggerated”.

She notes that despite the effects of climate change, the Arctic remains a difficult place to work. “Conditions in the Arctic can be extremely difficult, even when the lack of sea ice allows passage,” she says.

“Large parts of the route are far from emergency response capabilities, such as search and rescue, and resources to clean up the environment.

“Increasing shipping in the area will require significant investment in ships, emergency preparedness, infrastructure and weather forecasting systems for a route that is unpredictable and has a short operating season. We currently have no indication that our members are considering this as a commercial interest.”

Mr Mejlender-Larsen points to “the belief that, thanks to global warming, there will be summer. That will never happen. If it’s minus 40C and it gets 3C warmer, it’s still not warm”.

What’s more, Professor Arild Moe of the Norwegian research group Fritjof Nansen Institute says that the entire Arctic cold was based on exaggerated assumptions. “The excitement was excessive,” says an expert on oil and gas exploration in the region.

“The 2008 reports referred not to actual reserves, but to potential and highly uncertain resources that would be risky, expensive and difficult to find and exploit.”

As for Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, the Greenlandic and Danish authorities were again quick to respond that it not for sale.

Professor Moe says Trump’s “crude and undiplomatic statement” shows that the US under Trump is concerned with both security and economic interests on the island, including its “rich mineral resources”.

The Danish government also responded by announcing a huge increase defense spending for Greenland.

Elsewhere in the Arctic, there is Trump expected to allow increased oil and gas exploration in Alaska, particularly in the resource-rich Arctic National Reserve.

This 19 million-acre area is the largest wildlife sanctuary in the United States, and as recently as 2020, Trump authorized drilling in one part of it.

Meanwhile, Canada continues build a deep sea port in Grace Bay, on the north coast of Nunavut, its northernmost territory. Grace Bay is roughly in the middle of the so-called Northwest Passage, an Arctic sea route north of the Canadian mainland.

Back on the fishing vessel Granit, Mr Alnes-Banesma says that although he has made good money, fishing quotas continue to be reduced to try to preserve stocks in Norwegian Arctic waters.

However, he is philosophical. “After a few years at sea, I grew to fear the Arctic Ocean more, but I also came to respect and appreciate it for all its power and beauty.”