Apple’s China market share declines, iPhone shipments fall: Kuo

an apple is losing market share in China due to lower iPhone shipments, supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a report on Friday. Shares fell 2.4%.

“Apple has taken a cautious stance in discussing iPhone production plans through 2025 with key suppliers,” Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities, wrote in post. He added that despite the expected release of the new iPhone SE4, shipments in the first half of 2025 are expected to decline by 6% compared to the same period last year.

Kuo expects Apple’s market share to continue to decline as two of the upcoming iPhones are so thin that they will likely only support eSIMs, which are not currently promoted in the Chinese market.

“These two models may face supply issues if their designs are not changed,” he wrote.

Kuo wrote that in December, total smartphone shipments in China remained at last year’s level, but iPhone shipments fell by 10-12%.

There is also “no evidence” that Apple Intelligence, the company on the device artificial intelligence the offering, Kuo said, favors equipment upgrades or service revenue. He wrote that the feature “did not increase demand for iPhone replacements,” according to a supply chain survey he conducted, and added that he believed the feature’s appeal “has diminished significantly compared to cloud-based AI services that are rapidly developing in the coming months “.

Apple estimates total iPhone shipments to be around 220 million units in 2024 and around 220 million to 225 million this year, Kuo wrote. That’s “below the market consensus of 240 million or more,” he wrote.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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