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Analysts say French policy is “still soft,” analysts say

The President of the Parliamentary Group in the far right -right Red Rasimmers (RN), Marin Le Pen, is viewed on monitors during a television interview broadcast in the French TF1 news channel in Paris, March 31, 2025.

Julien’s de -shuzhovy | AFP | Gets the image

Paris was immersed in more political upheaval after the right-wing right-wing maritime maritime clip, which were introduced to the presidential hopes for a public position, as analysts have warned that the decision could further destabilize the Euro-zone economy.

On Monday after Le Pen, the country suffered another political bomb has been convicted Theft of EU funds has been banned from running for public office for five years with an immediate effect. The ruling effectively disqualified le Pen from the 2027 elections.

Le Pen has severely denied any violations, and on Monday night promised to appeal the conviction, which she called as “biased” and “political decision”.

“I am combat, I will not allow myself to eliminate so. I will use all possible routes to appeal. There is a narrow path. It really is very narrow, but it exists. I really ask as clearly as possible that the decision on the appeal is allowed to be considered in the presidential election,” Le Pen Broadcaster TF1 said.

Judge of the Paris Criminal Court, who presided over the case, Benedict de Pur Turrist, refused to make a political sentence on Monday, saying that no one had “immunity in violation of the rule of law.”

Le Pan’s condemnation made a political institution of France on a great willingness against the backdrop of a potential reaction from its supporters and worries that the decision could be regarded as political persecution.

Even some political opponents of Le Pena, such as Left Tree Leader Jean-Luk Melehon and Prime Minister François Bayru, have expressed concern about the court that has the right to ban Le-fen immediately, especially before the processes conducted their course.

Legal resolution

A press secretary of the National Rally Fabris Leger told “Squawk Box Europe” that the ruling was “a threat to the French democracy”, and in the French system of justice lacks “neutrality”.

Meanwhile, the president of the national rally Jordan Bardel is the probable “Plan B” for the party presidential candidate, if the Foen Foam does not succeed – urged the supporters to sign the petition that supported Le Peng and ‘peaceful mobilization’ to protect politics.

French policy “turn even more miserable”

Analysts agree that the ruling could have a restless impact on French policy at a time when the country has already experienced months that overcome its government leadership and expense plans and taxation.

The court ruling can make the national promotion more volatile and most likely to beat up the already delicate government headed by the Prime Minister, who just recently – and narrowly – managed to transfer the budget for 2025 to resolve the deficit of France, – which reached 5.8% of economic production last year.

“In the near future, this verdict will make even more complex management of France,” said Berenberg Solomon Fedler economist on Monday, an email under the name “French politics is becoming even more”.

“With a parliament, divided into three approximately equal fractions, the right and left together can overthrow the minority minority government at any time. Feeling unfairly, the national rally is now less cooperating with the government and most likely supports the petition for Prime Minister François Bair,” he said.

With regard to Le Pen’s own political future, analysts emphasized that it is too early to write off their presidential ambitions, adding that the national action will probably reflect as a political martyr and the victim of the institution.

Fidler Berenberg noted that the party “could make a verdict in its favor, saying that political persecution and went on the mood against the establishment.”

The man Rahman, the head of the director of Europe, agreed, said on Monday that “this is not a” political “trial, but Le Pen will seek to do so. It can succeed.”

Franch Far -Right Leader Marine Le Pen, Member of Parliament from the Rassemblement National (National Rally – RN) Party, Leaves The Party’s Headquarters on the Day of the Verdict of the Trial of Her Alongside 24 Other Officials and employees, former lawmakers and parliamentary assistants) and the rn party itself, over accusations of Misapproopriation of European Funds, in Paris, France, March 31, 2025.

Abdul Saburs | Reuters

Noticing that Le Pan’s political fate was “not adopted” in Monday’s ruling, Rahman said the politician would almost certainly bring an emergency appearance to one of the three French bodies that play a role, equivalent to the role of the US Supreme Court.

There, she asks the Constitutional Council to answer the “priority question” about the justice of her immediate prohibition, which is given before appealing to conviction.

“It is expected that before the Constitutional Council, she will claim that she is too important a politician to ban. It will be a confrontation between French democracy, its lawyers will say if the voters are banned from giving the ballot for the presidential election in 2027,” Rahman said.

Rahman said there was a “strong chance” that the ban on Le Pen could be suspended if the French Constitutional Council would have to conclude that the rights of the voters should prevail over the letter of the law. However the process will take time

“These appeals are likely to serve at least two years and allow her to run for the president in April-May-2027,” he said.

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