American shares are in record highs, but the economic outlook is no more understandable

Major actions in the US have greatly bounced after the rough beginning of the year, even if the prospect of the world’s largest economy and its interest rates remain as uncertain as ever.

Economic modeling is “very difficult” now because “things are constantly changing”, President Atlanta Rafael Bostik told “Squawk Box Europe” CNBC Last resume in Canada on Digital Services Tax.

Market participants also closely watch US President Donald Trump’s latest progress “A great, beautiful bill“What Cleared the key obstacle of the Senate last weekend.

From the point of view of inflation, this means that it focuses on the expectations of enterprises and consumers, as well as the actions they take in return, Bastik continued.

“The story is that we really begin to hear the obvious signs that they are expecting a price increase, but how high and when it happens, it is still unknown,” he said.

More enterprises reports that they cannot reach the final tariff strategy by 2026, so their impact on rising and rising prices “may be a much longer period than I think many are waiting,” Bostik added.

A Last Fed “Point”, The map of expectations of tariff members shows a wide range of different views among the officials for the economy, about which Bostik said: “They really talk about the uncertainty there.”

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for monetary policy by Influence of tariffs on prices Upnotes, but the markets then place their expectations on the reduction of the Fed speed range. The Fedwatch Group CME tool data shows about 50% of the probability of a triple rate by the end of the year, as well as a 10% likely more finish to the range 3.25% -3.5% of the current 4.25% -4.5%.

On Monday, Gille Moak, Chief Economist of the Axa Investment Group, said the new interest rate expectations were the reaction to the last round Trump’s attacks on Powell. This again caused the prospect for the US president to call the successor Powell soon, seeking to undermine his powers.

Trump has sharply criticized the Fed for interest rates, and is expected to choose his choice, even if it opposed most voting members.

“By calling the following (the Fed) of the President, significantly ahead of the term of the subella-materialization of the perennial” Shadow Fed “script-can become a harbinger of solid volatility” and turn foreign investors away from the US assets, MAEK said.

A S&P 500 closed in All the time high On Friday, returning from early April, when it fell by almost 18%today. Index entered A frame trading agreement Between the US and China, which helped increase the market moods last week.

US A trading deal with the UK Meanwhile, on Monday, he came into force, reducing tariffs for British cars and aerospace units, but retaining 10%on most goods.

Both countries still have to finalize the steel import transaction – while Wide Policy Tariffs on US Steel Keeps prices for high powers and depression elsewhere.

The White House remains blocked in negotiations with numerous key trading partners, including Canada, the European Union, Taiwan, Japan and India.

“At the moment, the markets I think is a very naive idea of ​​what is happening on the trade front,” said Bob Parker, senior adviser to the International Capital Markets Association on Monday.

“We could easily hold this discussion at the end of the year or perhaps entering in 2026, because we all know that the performance of trade agreements is very difficult and long,” Parker said. “And, as we saw last weekend with Canada, there is a serious risk of failure of trade negotiations.”

He added that, in particular, with the European Union even if July 9 Agreement Agreement continuesAt a few points of signs, you could see the elevated tariff level.