Albanese face head on the eve of May

When Cyclone Alfred made its way over the east coast of Australia earlier this month, he also undermined the state election plans.

Hoping to take advantage of some rare good news at interest rates, Prime Minister Anthony Albonez was on CUSP announced the date of choice in April. Instead, he had to turn and focus on responding to a natural disaster. It was, one Minister of Labor told me, the decision made in Him “the act of God”.

You can say that it was the topic of its government: big plans that often come from unpleasant surprises-trial global economic conditions and the crisis that lives in many countries, foreign wars and complex geopolitics, post-pandemia and growth of national departments.

“Global conditions are true,” said Albanese, headed by the Labor Party when he officially announced the election on May 3.

Although, despite these problems, he says his party was treated. “Landing where we have, it looks like a landing of 747 (jet) by helicopter,” he said, pointing to a recent increase in wage growth and inflation.

But he wants the second term to be dropped.

On his way, Peter Datton, a conservative who heads the liberal party, a dominant member of the so -called Australian National Party – who only two years ago noted that he was deeply unpopular.

But the race between them is now so dense, and the rise of independent or minor parties, so many expect parliament.

So, how did it unfold for the Prime Minister Albanes?

His victory in May 2022 was considered a new start after nine years of conservative management.

Climate actions were great on the agenda, as it resorted to the cost of life and restoration of stability to the country’s leadership.

But the heritage he looked for his government was on indigenous cases. He opened his victory speech, emphasizing the promise to hold a historical referendum on a fundamental voice to the parliament, an advisory body that would tell the government about issues that address people’s first nations.

Albonez conducted most of the 2023, campaigning for the vote “yes”. At that moment, he hoped that the people of the first nations would receive constitutional recognition – finally catching up with other former British colonies – and that Australia would start to expose what many see as a very broken relationship with the Aboriginal people and the Torres straits.

But the proposal was strongly rejected, leaving many indigenous people who feel frustrating and betrayal. After the harmful company, Albanese also licked wounds.

Some critics have accused of confusion and misinformation why about 60% of Australians voted “no”. But while Albanese campaigned for the vote “Yes”, opposition leader Peter Datton campaigned for “no”, striking at Albanes for wasting money on the referendum, while the crisis of life intensified.

“(Datton) not only won the referendum, but also won the position of work, because the government that is not fully focused on issues that are important in Australia,” says Kos Samaras, a political consultant and a former strategist.

During the Albonez’s stay, interest rates were put 12 times (and cut once, in February), inflation flew after the pandemic, the housing crisis in the country deepened, and the Australians increasingly felt stretched.

Despite the fact that the Prime Minister was guilty for many of these issues on the legs of the previous coalition government, voters want to know who is best to handle all of them.

In the speech of Anthony Albonez’s victory in 2022, he said that Australia was “the greatest country on earth.” Australian voters are increasingly questioning whether it is still more important whether politicians from traditional parties that can fix it.

So, although many are disappointed with the work, it is not necessarily translated as a voting for the Datton coalition in the ballot box.

In the previous election, the support of minor sides and independents has reached record levels, and this time is expected. If none of the parties reaches a magical number of 76 seats in the House of Representatives after the poll draws as an unlikely, independent candidates can become kings of any future government.

If this happens, Australia will become another page in the story that unfolds worldwide – deprived of voters looking for more radical decisions and voting. In many places, this is a real threat to democracy when people stop trusting the system.

But while Australia faces the same problems as other parts of the world, several quirks in their electoral system are still protected from the more radical swings we have seen in other countries, both the US, France and Germany.

All experts agree that the compulsory vote is a key factor in Australia’s political stability. In the 2022 elections, just under 90% of the population voted – significantly higher than the OECD average in 69%. The fine for not voting in the federal election is only $ 20, but there is a sense of duty to go out and vote.

This means that politicians do not need to mobilize their bases – the turnout is just about pushing your story. Where the voting is not mandatory, there is a tendency for special interest groups to become overly influential, because those who are less engaged do not throw the newsletter. Plus, when everyone, regardless of politics, education or their wealth, will vote, it seeks to pull the result to a more representative center.

“(Australian) elections are decided in the middle,” says the country’s chief electoral analyst Anthony Green. “It means getting your message through those people who do not pay much attention.”

Another large stabilizer for Australia, experts says – is a preferential vote – where voters effectively count their candidates in the order of the one they want to win. That is why in recent years the greens appeared on the left and in one nation to the right, but still, work and coalition dominated. Experts say that preferential votes cause the consequences of polarization and force two main parties to turn to people who do not necessarily vote for them first and foremost to get the following benefits, which also helps moderate policies.

While the campaign will focus on problems close to home, it would be stupid candidates to ignore global political winds.

During the presidential election last year, the few analysts I talked to, believes Trump’s White House will affect Australia massively, it is a relatively small and distant democracy.

But five months felt like all life in today’s policy. Doesn’t go through Donald Trump forced the headlines, and Australians are being monitored.

With the obvious ignoring Trump to long -standing alliances, as well as with constant talks about tariffs and trade wars, all this plays a role in the fear of Australians about their place in the world – and most importantly, the future is that his most important diplomatic and military relations may be.

Peter Datton claims he will be much better than Albans in the fight against Trump. But there is doubt that anyone really knows how to deal with this new administration – politicians of all strips around the world feel how best to manage their relations with the US.

When Albanese shoots at the starting pistol today, Australians spent just over a month of intense agitation to help them determine who they want to lead over the next three years.

While the processing of the ex-Zyclone Alfredo has improved its chances of rayting the Prime Minister’s approval to the highest level over the 18 months-pollination in recent months pointed to the Datton administration.

It is still incredibly close, and the Albonez government is facing the unenviable perspective to become the first one that has not been winning the second term since 1931.