A long-overdue ceasefire in Gaza may stop the killing, but it will not end the conflict

The ceasefire is a great achievement. It’s been a long time.

Versions of the deal have been under review since last May. Hamas and Israel blame each other for the delays.

Israel’s response to Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, left Gaza in ruins. Most of Gaza’s population of more than two million have been displaced.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Israeli attacks have killed nearly 50,000 people, both combatants and civilians. A recent study in the medical journal Lancet says this may be a significant underestimate.

The first big task is to ensure the observance of the ceasefire regime. Senior Western diplomats fear that after the first phase of 42 days, the war could resume.

The war in Gaza has had huge consequences in the Middle East.

It did not lead, as many had feared, to an all-out war in the region — the Biden administration took credit — but it did lead to geostrategic upheaval.

Hamas may still fight, but it is only a shadow of what it was.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

The International Court of Justice of the United Nations is investigating the case of the South African Republic accusing Israel of genocide.

After intervening in Hezbollah’s war in Lebanon, it was crushed by an Israeli offensive.

This was the factor that led to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

Iran and Israel exchanged direct attacks, weakening Iran. His network of allies and confidants, which Tehran called the “Axis of Resistance,” was paralyzed.

The Houthis in Yemen have halted most shipping between Europe and Asia that passes through the Red Sea – it remains to be seen whether they will follow through on their promise to stop attacks now that a ceasefire is in place in Gaza.

As for the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, it is as bitter as ever.

A ceasefire could, with luck, stop the killing and return Israeli hostages, as well as Palestinian detainees and prisoners, to their families.

This does not end the conflict, which is more than a century old.