Ceasefire in Gaza: what to expect?

Israel and Hamas are believed to be close to a deal that could end the war in Gaza and free Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It would be the most dramatic breakthrough in the 15-month war that began when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

It is hoped that a ceasefire agreement will mean an agreement to end the war raging in Gaza.

An exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

Hamas took 251 hostages during an attack on Israel in October 2023. It still holds 94 people captive, although Israel believes only 60 are alive.

Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

This ceasefire is expected to take place in three phases after the deal is announced.

Details are still being worked out. While the agreement is not finalized, it is subject to change.

The first stage

A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first phase, 34 hostages, expected to be civilians, would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages will be released immediately, and the remaining exchanges will take place within six weeks.

At this stage, Israeli forces will also begin withdrawing from Gaza settlements.

A Palestinian official said detailed negotiations on the second and third phases would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

The second stage

In the second stage, the rest of the hostages – soldiers and reservists – will be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel is believed to have agreed to release, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released to the occupied West Bank.

At this stage, Israel will also allow displaced persons currently in southern Gaza to return to the north.

Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been forced from their homes by the fighting.

The third stage

The third and final phase will involve rebuilding Gaza – something that could take years.

An Israeli official said Israeli forces would remain in the buffer zone, or safe zone, in Gaza during any ceasefire.

It has taken months of painstaking indirect negotiations to get to this point, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted a complete end to the war before releasing the hostages, which was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will effectively suspend the war while its terms are met.

However, it is not clear whether this will mean that the war is over for good.

One of Israel’s key military objectives was to destroy the military and leadership capabilities of Hamas. Despite being badly damaged by Israel, Hamas still has some potential for action and regrouping.

It is also unclear which of the hostages are alive or dead and whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those who remain missing.

For its part, Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners that Israel says it will not release. It is believed that this includes those who were involved in the terrorist attacks on October 7.

It is also unclear whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date, or whether its presence there will be indefinite.

Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.

A cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that ended previous wars was shaken by the fighting and eventually broken.

The schedule and complexity of this ceasefire means that even a small incident can escalate into a major threat.

Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen have launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaking through the border fence and striking settlements, police stations and military bases.

About 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were taken back to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets at Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first from the air and then a ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets in Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

Israel’s offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages, with aid struggling to reach those most in need. More than 46,600 people – most of them civilians – have been killed in Israeli strikes, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.