“Big Stay” and “Without Relief”, “Without Fire” change the labor markets

Millions of workers left work during the COVID-19 pandemic Pandema, but economic security and uncertainty once again transferred the tides of the labor market to the “great stay”.

Economists have come up with this term to refer to fewer employees who leave work and less employers who hire or fired new workers.

“We had a” great resignation “only a couple of years ago,” said CNBC Nela Richardson, Chief Economist ADP. But now “workers are going anywhere,” she said.

“They have a dream job, which is probably partly at home, perhaps with a big pickup … And what we actually see in the data, very low turning, which is very unusual in the US,” she added.

“I call it a “great stay”. People remain in place. They don’t go away. And they remain investing in things as this and software development, where you usually see a lot of circulation, “she said.

Similarly, Richardson said that firms make hiring decisions, “because they are not sure about the road forward, not necessarily because they are trying to lower the number.”

Describing this trend as a “market without hunting, without fire,” Richardson said that the impetus is clearly slowed down in terms of hiring, although the initial claims to the US-Praxy-Praxy are still near historical minimum minimums.

“We believe that now it is not a fire, without a loy (the environment) because firms are so reluctant to release people because it took so much time to return them to the US.”

Rotate with “Big Resign” is dramatic: the COVID-19 pandemic has completed the longest employment and economic expansion in the US history, According to the US Bureau of Labor StatisticsApproximately 50.5 million people who left work in 2022 compared to 47.8 million in 2021.

But there are signs that the job market in the US is cooling; The rise in wages in anxiety came to a slower than expected in July, 73,000, in July, Recent data from August 1 showedWhile unemployment rate is up to 4.2%.

A weak report can give an incentive for the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates if it will take place in September, economists said.

A similar trend was noticed in the UK, where the number of jobs for jobs increased to record 1172 000 for the period of August-October 2021, According to the National Statistics Office. By the second quarter of 2022, the total number of vacancies reached 1295,000, Said ons.

Fast forward before 2025 and the latest work data in the UK, released in mid -AugustAccording to the ONS, the labor market in the country continued to cool when the vacancies of 5.8% to 718,000 to 718,000.

It adds that “feedback from our vacancies suggests that some firms cannot recruit new workers or replace the workers who have left.”

The economic inaction coefficient of the UK-reflection of the number of people between the ages of 16 and 64, who do not work and are not actively seeking work, is 21% in April to June 2025, according to ONS.

“Business is constantly declining over the last 3 years, and recent declines that are partly caused by higher work costs with taxation and minimum wage raises, as well as total economic uncertainty,” said Monica George Michael, associate professor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Studies.

“Meanwhile, the drop -down and unemployment increase in childbirth.”

Neil Carber, CEO of the Set and Labor Confederation, said CNBC that Britain had also seen the trend of “great stay”, and the firms reluctant hiring until they better understand the UK’s economy trajectory, which is unsuccessful.

“The truth is that jobs are created by businesses, and the engine creation engine is a height … If you don’t get a business in a position if they want to hire in the UK, you are not going to get anywhere,” he said CNBC.

“The market is quite amazing at the moment. The permanent set has been low for two to three years, and it’s not quite returned (because Covid-19) is just sitting there with a button. So, many of our members say they can do, they just want confidence to do it.”

– Jeff Cox and Greg Iacurch CNBC made a report in this story