Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford: Strategic Analysis

Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0, 31 kos) tries to do what no other male boxer has done, which is to become an indisputable champion of three divisions. To do this, he must defeat the super unquestionable champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 kos), who has never been defeated in Super Middleweight, with a 11-0 record in the division.

Crawford, in essence, increases three weight divisions to fight Canelo. He made a small stop on the route to Super Middleweight fighting Israil Madrimov last August for Middleweight Junior (World) WBA titles and Wbo (interim). It has spent a little more than a year since the fight; Crawford has had time to prepare and build his body to the Super Limit of 168 pounds.

The biggest question is that Crawford will be able to defeat Saul on this weight? Crawford’s 147 pound version everyone saw dominated and defeat Errol Spence by the undisputed heavyweight crown will not be the one who enters the ring against Canelo. We will see a version of 168 pounds of Crawford, which will be larger and strong. Which one of your speed and agility will you lose due to the added weight? In his fight against Madrimov, he did not look as dominant as he did in Welterweight. The fight was much closer than many expected.

Crawford beat Madrimov in 7 rounds, but in 4 of these rounds, the difference was only for a single punch. Israil did a good defensive work: stop, catch and slip Crawford’s punches. Offensively, Crawford sometimes fought, landing only 17.9 percent of his fists. Madrimov threw him rhythm with his constant and excessive movement.

An opponent who was a limited success and scored a defeat that was ruled against Crawford, was Egidijus “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas. He has landed more punch against Crawford up to 118 total fists at a connection rate of 30.2 percent, which is comparable to 30.5 percent of Madrimov.

Although Kavaliauskas lost the game by technical tie in the ninth round, it is his success in the first six rounds that aims to possible defects in the Crawford match. Similar to Madrimov, Kavaliauskas had a higher body movement along with Feinting that gave Crawford problems. The average machine exceeded the outbreak of 78 to 65 in the first six rounds and scored the perceived defeat with a hard right. Terence has shown defensive weaknesses; It is susceptible to the right while in Southpaw’s position. Both Madrimov and Kavaliauskas landed various hard rights while in this position. Bud must strengthen his defense against Canelo if he intends to survive the party, as one of his best punches is the right.

Crawford will choose to fight Southpaw or Orthodox posture? Having the ability to do both will give you a tactical advantage if you strategically do it. However, one thing he cannot do against Canelo is to do as he did against Madrimov or Kavaliauskas, who stays in his pocket for prolonged periods; It could be expensive if it does. The ex -an indisputable junior heavy weight champion, Jermell Charlo, found boxing outside in a losing effort. His production was anemic, landing only 71 punches in the game. Similar to Crawford, Charlo increased the weight of the fight, but Canelo’s power was too much. While Charlo hunted outside for survival, limiting exchanges and exposure. Crawford has pledged to fight differently and try to win by exchanging with Alvarez.

It is a well -known fact that Canelo’s greatest weakness is his heavy legs, as he fights against mobile and agile boxers. The 168 -pound version of Bud Agile and is it evasive enough to cause Saul’s difficulties? It may not be, especially if he intends to trade with Canelo. It must tactically use the movement in I-Fora, but it must do so in a way that does not minimize its production as Charlo did. To overcome Canelo, he must also overcome it, which means that he must do enough offensively to allow this to happen, which is not an easy task. Cannot simply do the minimum and hopes to win. Although Canelo is not a volume punctuation, it is effective and precise with the punches it makes, practicing a total connection percentage of 36.1 percent, which ranks fifth in sport. As great as Crawford can be defensively, it will end up being hit by Canelo; The good that can absorb his strokes will dictate the game. If the punches are too much for Bud, it can be found in the boxing out more than it wants, for its survival.

Alvarez has fought like Gennady Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev and Dmitry Bivol. Could make his best punch. Canelo has shown to have a granite chin; He has never been demolished in his career. It is very unlikely that Crawford’s force will affect Canelo to the point that it would prevent him from pursuing it throughout the ring. Canelo has not yet dedicated to the reduction of a punch of an opponent. Terence is a big boxer, but in Super Middleweight, will he be able to perform and execute his play plan as he did in Welterweight?

If his fight against Madrimov is an indication of his ability to act against stronger punctures, we may see a less effective outbreak than the Caixi in the range to minimize the damage he suffers. Canelo has to try Terence to this weight and to do it -attacking his body and breaking his guard, pointing to his arms as he did against Callum Smith, who suffered a left -wing injury due to the repetition of Alvarez’s punches. If Canelo is the largest fighter in terms of punching, he must be besieged and use his strength to break Crawford and punish him. Bud is definitely combative and has never had to remove it offensively. If you stubbornly decide to exchange when it should be simply defensive, it can be its fall. His margin of error in this match is extremely low as any mistake could cost him a lot.