Trump’s special playbook for China, India and Russia

President Donald Trump pursues an unusual strategy – courting Russian President Vladimir Putin, holding fire on Beijing, constantly turning screws on a close ally: India.

Despite the fact that India has become one of the earliest countries that participated in the talks with the Trump administration, there is still no sign of concluding the agreement with the US New Delhi, now also looks at the secondary tariff for 25% or “punishment” for the purchase of Russian oil, which should come into force this month.

US Finance Minister Scott Babe On Tuesday has grown criticism Against India, accusing him of profit in cheap imports of Russian oil and threatens further raising tariffs for Indian goods.

“We planned to increase tariffs for India – these are secondary tariffs for the purchase of sanctioned Russian oil,” CNBC said on Tuesday.

Earlier this week, the White House trade adviser Peter Navaro condemned the Asian giant’s dependence on Russian oil as a “conjunctural” and undermined international efforts to isolate the Russian military economy.

“India acts as global clearing for Russian oil, transforming the embargo into high cost, giving Moscow the dollars it needs,” Navaro said OP-U for Financial Times.

A sharp rhetoric threatens to unravel the years of improvement of ties between Washington and New Delhi – with India, which stated that the United States is focusing on it unfairly than buying Russian oil.

“So far, the world is getting used to the special and sometimes contradictory ways in which the Trump administration pursues its agenda,” said Bert Hoffman, Professor Eastern Asia at the Singapore National University.

India acted as a leading buyer of Russian oil, which is sold at a discount, as some Western countries avoided purchases and imposed restrictions on Russian exports over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

It was the second largest buyer of Russian oil, which in the first half of this year imported 1.6 million barrels a day, which is compared to 50,000 Barpe. Washington has not placed secondary tariffs in China on its Russian oil purchases.

India has re -confirmed The fact that the US administration asked it to buy Russian oil to keep the markets calm, pointing to the European Union and even the US trade with Moscow.

The country aimed at Washington, saying that we continue to import hexaphor of Uranus for its nuclear industry, palladium for electric industry, and fertilizers and chemicals from Russia. Bilateral trade with Russia in 2024 amounted to $ 5.2 billion, which showed government data compared to almost $ 36 billion in 2021.

Bilateral Trade between New Delhi and Moscow It reached a record of $ 68.7 billion a year, which ended on March 2025. For comparison, the European Union trade with Russia amounted to 67.5 billion euros ($ 78.1 billion) in 2024, and in 2023 trade amounted to 17.2 billion euros, according to reports, Data of the European Commission.

“India has fallen victim to this pressure tactics that Trump’s administration is trying to implement. Trump clearly uses tariffs as a pressure rate for Russia,” said Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute in the Washington Analytical Center of Wilson Center, said CNBC “A boxed box as Asia“

Another factor determining the approach to India is that Trump feels “victim” over how Modi blow your application for loan request For emphasizing the role in the ceasefire in India-Pakistan, Kugelman emphasized.

In addition to Trump’s complaints, “India’s reluctance to decrease barriers” for exports of American agricultural products, such as soy and corn, Kevin Chen Hajan, a research officer at the S. Rajaratham International Studies School.

While the meeting is like described the meeting As “productive”.

Saying on A joint news briefing after negotiationsPutin emphasized once again that “in order to resolve conflicts in Ukraine will be long -term and durable, all the root causes of the crisis … Must be eliminated; all legitimate problems of Russia must be taken into account.”

Kirill Dmitriev, one of Putin’s main negotiators, adopted talks on Monday in Washington as a “important day of diplomacy”, emphasizing Moscow’s opposition to any short -term deal with Ukraine.

Trump tries to “maximize his lever … pressure on India and Russia through India” to get a trade deal with the first and the ceasefire pact with the second, said Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and American BCA Research strategist. In the end, they will help to increase the prospects of Republicans in the upcoming intermediate elections, the henque added.

While India faces steep tariffs for the purchase of Russian raw materials, China, which remained the largest importer of Russian raw materials, was deprived of such levies. said Trump Last Friday he did not consider tariffs on revenge In China, for the purchase of Russian oil, but may consider it in two to three weeks.

Purchases in China’s Russian oil have grown up to 46% of total exports from Russia In the first half of this year, out of 34% in 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration, after which India, which imported about 36% of Russia’s supplies.

Asked about the role of China in the Russian purchase of oil, the infant suggested that Beijing’s import was less indignant in the eyes of Trump’s administration because he was already a large buyer before Russia broke into Ukraine.

China gently may also reflect Trump’s desire not to unleash a potential loud summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming months and concluding a long trade transaction, said Stephen Olson, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof ISHAK Institute.

Secondary tariffs for India can be intended as a “Luke shot” to show that the US may put pressure by expanding similar tariffs on China, if Russia is no more appropriate, Olson added.

After weeks of escalation tensions, Beijing and Washington agreed to suspend hefty duties in May and weaken several punitive measures imposed in April as both sides continued to work on killing a solid deal.

Beijing used its dominance rare land minerals, which are crucial for military and industrial use in their negotiations with Washington, maintaining tight control over the export of critical minerals.

Relationships with China are difficult, and Trump administration has not yet left the “bright, agreed policy towards China. Sometimes it seems that it wants to compete with China economically. Otherwise, it wants to achieve some type of understanding, or to a detective,” Kugegelman said.