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The report “Inside India” this week is taking place in this report. How is what you see? You can subscribe Here.
A great story
When refineries are children of the oil industry, India has a lot of lips for feeding – and US raw material threats are clearly available for food.
This week, US President Donald Trump hit another 25% of New Delhi export kicinaries, Bringing total duties up to 50%Referring to the purchase of Russian oil in India. The White House leader outlined this question in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday: “They buy Russian oil, they ignite a military machine, and if they are going to do it then … then I will not be happy.”
Despite the tone of Trump, “while the United States is asking India to pressure Russia, it goes on a soft approach,” said Mukesh Sahdev, Chief Analyst Rystad Energy, CNBC reports. “What we see is what geopolitical craving goes against the basics of oil.”
In the end, Russian purchases of India are not sanctioned or new: New Delhi Previously used the blessing of the White House To access Western delivery and insurance tools for raw materials purchased under the cost that the G7 introduced to simultaneously avoid the martyrdom of supply and the Moscow military box office.
Faced with international criticism, Indian officials have repeatedly defended the country’s consumption as a issue of national interest.
“We will buy in where we can
He added: “Essentially, buying in Russia, we will (be) help the world economy (stabilization) prices, and therefore we contributed to global oil prices.”
If India stopped Russian oil today, “world raw prices can jump to more than $ 200 a barrel for all world consumers”, the source in the Indian oil sector reported EMMA Graham CNBC.
India, World Importer Oil No. 3, can boast of power processing around 5.2 million barrels per day – Including 1.24 million barrels a day at the Jamnagar plant – and the International Energy Agency waiting The country add another 1 million barrels a day of demand for the forecast period until 2030.
This is a large number, so let’s plunge into the insincere.
While refineries can switch their slates to maximize the release of a particular oil product-thinking about gasoline, diesel, fuel oil Indian plants were optimized for treating high sulfur (so-called “acidic”), such as supplies from the nearest Persian Gulf … and Russian.
But the acidic raw Russian roughly loaded into the distant ports in the Baltic and Black Seas, making it a less profitable purchase in the arbitration in the era that preceded the war in Ukraine.
India was still random Russian sour cargo – but compare an average of 100,000 barrels per day, which was imported in 2021, up to 1.796 million barrels a day in 2025, according to Kpeler data and analysts.
The discounts offered by Russia because its traditionally European client database for sea raw materials decreased significantly, made Moscow’s deliveries almost insurmountable.
In addition, when most barrels in the Middle East come with many years of commitments related to fixed regional monthly sale prices, Russian varieties are usually sold at the place-swinging place for volume, delivery and cost.
“The Indian refineries have adapted their systems to accommodate these estimates, especially in complex facilities designed to produce high yields from medium-sized raw materials,” said CNBC Sumit Ritolia, a leading analyst at KPLER, said CNBC in the e-mail messages.
“The replacement of Russian barrels in full is a difficult feat – it is logically scary, economically painful and geopolitically rich,” he added, noting that substitutes would squeeze profitable stocks and eventually eliminate the lower line.
This is the bad news in Mumbai where there was a backup bank of India attempt Bend inflation without strangling economic growth. Spike in energy costs – similar to which have suffered heavily from European countries shortly after they resolved from Russian supplies SeaBorne – can burden this mission.
But uncomfortable is impossible.
Two sources of oil trade, which spoke anonymously with CNBC because of the sensitivity of this issue, said the Indian refineries had released a “flurry” tenders for the purchase of stains.
The third source of trade said that if the discounts of the Russian price are attractive, India and China are unlikely to refuse supplies – and that, in the end, Chinese refiners can absorb more Russian consumption, which India is no longer consumed, in turn releasing more Western African raw materials for Indian oil.
“It is important to note that in the Middle East is usually acquired on urgent contracts, so there may be no great flexibility for the acquisition of additional volumes on the operational basis. Thus, India can acquire more raw in West Africa (WAF) and South America,” Ivan Mats, the head of APAC APAC in the analytical firm vortexa. “Given the escalation of the tariffs imposed in India, it is still necessary to find out whether India will import more raw from the US as part of trade negotiations.”
Most of our raw, as it happens, has a low sulfur variety (“sweet”). According to KPLER, India occupied about 285,000 barrels a day in the US.
We are going to know if India can bite Trump more impressive than his punishment and stop consuming rough In the September campaign Potential Russian disruptions to deliveries among many prolonged uncertainty in the oil market have been estimated.
“Currently, the risks for delivery are likely to exceed the pressure on the demand from the tariffs. The United States is simultaneously confused with many BRICS strategy, which may be counterproductive in ensuring the market stability and clarity are usually expected from Washington.”
