As “secondary tariffs” Trump to Russia could hit the world economy

Despite the fact that the most sanctioned country in the world, Russia continued to use its huge energy wealth for the banking war in Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump hopes to change this. He has announced that sweeping new secondary tariffs It will affect any country that is still traded with Russia if the ceasefire with Ukraine was not agreed by Friday.

Secondary tariffs will see goods from any country that trades with Russia face 100% tax If they are imported into the US.

Oil and gas are exports in Russia, and the largest customers in Moscow are China, India and Turkey.

“I used trade for many things, but it’s great for the wars settled,” Trump said last month.

This is not the first time the Trump administration has imposed secondary tariffs, which are also operating to punish Venezuelan oil buyers.

However, their use against Russia will be of much greater importance to the global economy.

Russia remains the third largest oil producer in the world, for only Saudi Arabia and the United States itself. But his supplies have fallen this year, reports Bloomberg analysis Data on ship tracking.

“The key channel, which is secondary tariffs for buyers of Russian energy, can affect the global economy through the level of energy prices,” says Kiran Tompins of the Consultative Capital Economy.

If tariffs work, they will reduce the flow of Russian oil and gas into world markets.

And with less supplies, prices can rise as and when Russia has launched a full -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This has led to a splash of inflation worldwide. President Trump says he is not worried about recording oil production in the US.

Mr Tompkins notes that this time there are other reasons that suggest that the impact on prices will not be so noticeable.

He explains that “the current background is the one where OPEC+ (a group of large countries producing oil and its allies) have a significant reserve ability to reach.”

Russia has developed a whole system to avoid existing sanctions, which may be useful for helping its trading partners to avoid secondary tariffs that threaten Trump.

For example, its so -called “shadow fleet” – consisting of hundreds of tankers of incomprehensible property – can be used to conceal the origin of exported Russian oil and gas.

“The maintenance of sanctions is the same great task as the imposition of sanctions in the first place,” says US sanctions expert Richard, a nephew of the University of Colombia.

“This is because the sanctioned party is taking steps to avoid them.”

Ever since a full -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. India has become the second largest buyer of Russian oil, According to the Energy and Clean Studies Center.

“They feed the military machine. And if they are going to do it, I will not be happy,” President Trump said on Tuesday CNBC.

If secondary sanctions come into force, US companies that buy goods from India will have to pay 100% import tax – or tariff – when these products reach us shores.

The idea is that it makes these goods so expensive that the American business decided to buy them cheaper from other places, which will lead to lost profits for India.

This, in turn, should restrain India from the purchase of Russian oil. And if Russia is unable to sell its oil elsewhere, as other countries face the same difficult situation, it will have less money to finance the war in Ukraine.

One way that Americans could experience higher prices as a result of new secondary tariffs is the purchase of mobile phones in India.

Apple’s American firm moves most of its iPhone Production in India – In particular, the manufacture of the phones he wants to sell in the US.

If these products are subject to new tariffs, prices can double for US consumers. Precisely because tariffs pay companies that import goods – and these companies tend to pass most, if not all, their costs increase on their customers.

Imports to the US from India are already faced with 25% tariff as part of the broader trading shock of President Trump, and he said CNBC that the number could be raised “very significantly”.

The Indian government has accused the United States of double standards, pointing to its extended Washington trade with Russia.

Last year, the vast majority of this trade consists of the US from India, which amounted to just over $ 3 billion (2.2 billion pounds) – although it is only 10% since 2021.

In this trade prevails the purchase of raw materials for nuclear energy and fertilizers. Russia is the main world supplier of both.

China buys the most Russian oil, and President Trump’s decision to bring secondary tariffs to Chinese goods would be much more complicated.

All because US imports from China costs five times more than in India, and much more such imports are consumer goods such as toys, clothing and electronics.

Secondary tariffs aimed at Beijing also risk a lot of upset A wider talks for trading Between the two largest economies of the world, which Trump is being held from the first term.

“This type of excessive escalation is unlikely to hit the Chinese,” says the IMD business school professor.

He explains that it would be “very difficult” to clear the Chinese from the Russians for no good reason, given how closely the presidents are SI and Putin worked together In recent years.

In addition, the last time Trump tried to use triple tariffs for China, he found that it did not work – because almost cut off all the trade between the two countries.

Another step can add inflation to the US, which Trump has long been promised to fight.

It can also cost a huge number of production jobs in China, at a time when its economy is already fighting on several fronts.

The analysis of the Center for Research and Clean Air Basic in Finland shows that the EU and Turkey also remain one of the largest buyers of Russian energy.

By 2022, the EU was an export place for Russia, although it was significantly reduced after a full -scale invasion of Ukraine. Brussels recently agreed to buy a lot More energy from the USBut some imports from Russia remain.

In June, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, acknowledged the problemSaying that “Russia has repeatedly tried to blackmail us by armeding its energy reserves” when she posted plans to stop imports by the end of 2027.

US-Es-Mami Trading Relationships are great in the world, and the couple just negotiates on new trading conditions Most EU exports to the US will apply a 15%tariff.

A lot in the EU criticized this dealSaying that tariffs will harm European exporters.

Now they are also afraid that secondary sanctions on the EU can cause even more harm. Adding 100% of the Russian energy tariffs can significantly reduce the amount of EU products to the US.

However, the largest sellers include pharmaceuticals and machines that may be difficult from other places – that is, Americans have little choice but pay more.

Russia’s own economy has so far proved to be extremely supple, as a full -scale invasion of Ukraine began last year, increasing by 4.3%.

However, Economy Minister Maxim Ranitikov Recently warned that the country was “on the verge of” recession after the “overheating” period. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts only 0.9%this year.

If secondary sanctions are successful in reducing exports, they push Russia closer to the recession.

It is difficult to find out the exact impact of the war on the Russian economy because Moscow prevented the publication of a large number of economic data after a full -scale invasion – including the production of oil and gas.

About a third of Russian state expenses are financed on oil and gas money, but exports are falling.

Meanwhile, Putin directs a large share of defense costs than anytime after the Cold War. It is believed that the defense costs have reached 6.3% of GDP.

In contrast, Ukraine pursues a huge 26% of its distant economy for war. The difference explains why its President Volodimir Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to external assistance from his allies.

Trump tariffs are designed to help Zelensky, reducing the amount of money coming to Russia, and he hopes that death, suffering and destruction will end in Ukraine.