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India is moving on a difficult balancing after US President Donald Trump has threatened a “fine” from his permanent import of Russian oil -the trade that Newdli seems to be reluctant to end soon.
Despite the fact that Trump told reporters on Friday that he “heard” that India would stop shopping, officials in New Delhi remained useless. The press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Randhir Jacewal said the country decides its energy import sources, “depending on the cost at which oil is available in the international market, and depending on the global situation at the time.”
“Indians must have some confusion” after the threat of Trump – abolition from a more tolerant approach taken by the Biden Administration, Bob McNali, President of the Consulting Firm Rapidan Energy Group, said “Squawk Box asia” CNBC “.
“Now we flip through and say, ‘What do you do, taking all this Russian oil? “,” said McNali.
In March 2022, a month after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine-Dalip Singh, a former deputy adviser for the US National Security Economy in the Baden Administration, As reported, said that “friends do not set red lines” and “there is currently no ban on energy imports from Russia.”
“What we don’t want to see is a quick acceleration of India’s imports from Russia because it is related to energy or any other exports that are currently banned from us or other aspects of the international sanctions,” Singh said.
On July 30, Trump announced that India will face 25% of the tariff, starting on August 1, as well as the uncertain “punishment” for the purchase of Russian oil and military equipment.
But analysts believe that India, which is the third largest energy consumer in the world, is not blinking. Reuters reports that there are no immediate changes that are planned in India’s long-term contracts with Russian suppliers, citing two anonymous Indian government sources that did not want to determine because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Russia has become Leading oil supplier to India Ever since the war in Ukraine has begun, it has increased with just under 100,000 barrels a day before the invasion, or 2.5% of total imports, up to more than 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, or 39%. According to the International Energy Agency, 70% of Russian raw materials was exported to India in 2024.
Indian Energy Minister Hardap Singh Puri defended Newdeli’s actions in an interview on July 10 with CNBC, saying it helped stabilize world prices and even encouraged the US
“If people or countries stopped buying at this stage, the price of oil would increase to $ 130 a barrel. It was a situation in which we were advised, including our friends in the US, please buy Russian oil, but within the cost.”
Russian exports of oil was limited at $ 60 per barrel In December 2022, a group of seven countries representing the highest economy in the world, while the European Union reduced the price cover slightly higher 47 dollars per barrel In July.
However, the pressure is set. Vishno Varatan, Head of Mizuho Securities, said the US threats are “clear and true” in India. He said that New Delhi is likely to remain non-profit when buying oil because he estimates the compromises of this “Russia” as a spoken chip.
India will need to read the global market for comparable oil transactions with Russian oil, which is also the head of macro studies for Asia ex-Japan.
New Delhi could study the alternatives, including Iran – if you can agree on the release of the United States – as well as several other producers, “or within OPEC+pressure in the US,” Varatan said.
In OPEC+ Bloc had agreed on Sunday to lift the products Up to 547,000 barrels a day in September, as the concern with potential disruptions related to Russia.
India will face a tough choice, Rapin McNali said.
“Trump is serious. He’s disappointed with Putin … India will have a difficult choice, but it is difficult to see how they continue to import, which is a million and a half barrels (C) Russian raw materials when Donald Trump decides to put all relationships on the line.”
