Russia is moving equipment to Syrian bases, satellite images show

Russia is moving a large amount of military equipment to Syria, signaling preparations for a partial withdrawal, analysts say.

Satellite images show a buildup of military equipment at a Russian-controlled port and air base in western Syria.

Transport planes also appear to have flown in and out of the country in recent days.

BBC Verify has also released footage showing vast convoys of Russian military trucks heading north towards these bases.

The Institute for the Study of War suggests that this indicates preparations for the reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

The Washington think tank added that the movement of military vehicles to its bases could be a precautionary measure while Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus.

Russia had a significant military presence in Syria during the rule of Bashar al-Assad, helping him stay in power after the civil war began in 2011.

Its two most significant bases are the port in Tartus, established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and later expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the Khmeimim airbase, which has been operational since 2015 and has been used for airstrikes in Syria. in support of Assad.

Both have become key strategic bases for Russia, giving it easier access to the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean.

However, the fall of Assad happened raised questions about Russia’s future presence in Syria. Moscow seeks negotiations with the new regime.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that “there are no final solutions” and that Russia “is in contact with representatives of the forces that are currently controlling the situation in (Syria).”

BBC Verify tracks activity at Khmeimim Air Base using Planet Labs satellite imagery. There are signs of ongoing activity involving significant military transport aircraft. On Friday, two large An-124 aircraft were spotted at the base, which may be used to evacuate funds from Syria. They were out by Tuesday, but the two large planes were back at the base by Wednesday morning.

Other pictures taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday showed dozens of military vehicles parked at the airfield near a Russian-made Il-76 military transport plane that could be used for evacuation.

BBC Verify has been tracking one large Russian An-124 since Tuesday on aircraft tracking website Flightradar24. Its publicly available tracker showed it was flying over Russian airspace in the direction of Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the coast of Syria, west of Khmeimim Air Base, probably because its public tracker was disabled. Then six hours later it can be seen returning to the north.

David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, said he was fast the collapse of the Assad government meant that it was unlikely that Russia had a plan to evacuate resources.

He described the activity at Khmeimim Air Base as “unusual,” suggesting that Russia is keeping some resources at the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria.

Typhoon Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed that the images showed “the early stages of Russia’s withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of air evacuation.”

“The presence of IL-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian ships in Tartus and the organized advance stage of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion,” Mr. Ozberk said.

Last week, BBC Verify reported how Russian warships have left the port in Tartusand analysts believe that at the moment they are in international waters.

Those ships have not returned, but more than 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in recent days, satellite images show.

Mr Heathcote said it was likely the vehicles were being prepared for evacuation, although this was unlikely to happen immediately due to the lack of loading ramps and cranes.

Recent footage also showed large convoys of Russian equipment in motion – suggesting they had been diverted from other Russian outposts across the country.

BBC Verify posted the video on the main highway, suggesting they were heading north towards the bases.

An 80-second video posted on X shows a long line of Russian vehicles located 30 km south of Homs. Another video showed a convoy of Russian cars on the same highway further south, 70 km from Damascus.

“Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment that were deployed to nearly hundreds of strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus,” said Anton Mardasov, a foreign scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Syria program.