After the deadline, what’s next to trade US Canada?

The introduction of the independent term for the new US Kanada trade transaction came and went on Friday. So what will happen next for these two deeply intertwined neighbors?

Canada and the United States have been closed in the tariff war for six months, and despite talking about “intensive” negotiations in recent weeks, the trade agreement remains elusive.

Both President Donald Trump, and Prime Minister Mark Karnya poured cold water on the idea that they would reach a quick and tariff deal. And an open criticism of Trump during Canada to recognize the Palestinian state, the hopes for the agreement last minute.

Pessimism means shift in a tone of recent G7 meetings in June, when two leaders set themselves a summer term.

The Canadian negotiators concluded that “this is not the end of the world” when the quick deal is not reached, and “this quality through speed and the agreement made is important,” said Feng Hampson, Professor of International Affairs at Carlton University.

Carney – who was tightly consecrated in detail – said as much, repeating that “any transaction” will not do.

However, there is pressure on both sides to give businesses a return.

Conservative leader Pierre Paylievore stated that he shared the “dissent of the Canadians” on Friday that the contract had not been reached until the deadline. He urged Carney Liberals to do more to “return control over our economic future.”

Canada is now facing a 35%tariff, although according to the current free trade deals. American global tariffs for steel, aluminum, auto parts hurt because the United States is the main market for these sectors.

The Trump administration justified these tariffs, stating that the stream of prohibited drugs such as Fentonil was lack of cooperation. Canada denies that, noting that Canada is about 1% of the US imports. In recent months, it has also brought a new border defense and “fentanyl -cort”, trying to solve Trump’s problems.

Threatened tariffs for copper and expected End of global release from tariffs used by buyers of goods under 800 dollars Can also pushed.

Canada has replied to $ 60 billion ($ 43.3 billion; £ 32.3 billion) in counter -tariffs on various US products – the only country together with China directly avenge Trump.

“It is not surprising that enterprises are craving confidence after months and months of violent ads,” said Catherine Fortin, Vice-President of International Policy and Global Partnership in the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

“But at the same time, they are not craving for a really bad deal.”

Several factors give Canada some respiratory hall.

The paper seems to be that the country is facing a serious tariff speed in the US, but trade is currently free of charge than the collection at first glance.

In March, Trump announced the tariffs that paid the goods that fit Canada – the Joint Mexico Agreement known in Canada as Cusma and the US as USMCA.

This transaction – agreed during Trump’s first term – came into force five years ago.

Almost 90% of Canada’s exports to the US are eventually capable of crossing the border mail when firms provide the necessary documentation, according to this Agreement.

“It gave us a buffer, without doubt that there are no other countries now,” said Professor Hampson.

This means that Canada generally pays a much lower tariff rate than many transactions already concluded in the US, such as the EU, South Korea and Japan in 15%, or Indonesia and Philippines by 19%.

Ottawa also brought some assistance programs for the affected industry, and also raised about $ 1.5 billion more than import duties than in the same period last year, thanks to the tariffs for the oncoming.

And while US consumers are raised, and prices are kept holding, it helps to talk to Canada when they can expect when Americans start to feel the tariff pain.

“The Americans are going to remove,” said Professor Hampson.

Ms Fortin-Lefaivre predicts American business, especially smaller firms that do not have the same resources to resist them, will put pressure on political leaders.

“So the pressure can play our interests,” she said.

The Canadians also seem ready to give a new Prime Minister a few free. Opinions polls suggest that they are usually satisfied with its trading processing.

Karni “realizes what to do what is best for the economy now is really what is better for him politically”, Martha Hall Findley, the headmaster of the State Policy School of the University of Calgary and the former Liberal Member, BBC.

Trump said he imposes tariffs for raising domestic production, open foreign markets and raising money for the government.

It also uses them to push countries such as Canada, on a number of problems that are not traded, including military costs.

In the last few weeks, Ottawa significantly increased its defense, increasing security on the overall border and killed a digital tax that opposes US technology firms.

These steps show that Canada “is doing what the Americans wanted to do,” said Ms Fortin.

She hopes that Canadian negotiators push the tariffs as low as possible, and are working to make two deeply integrated supply networks to continue working together.

Canada presses on help on 50% steel and aluminum tariffs that squeeze US carmakers.

And on Thursday, Finance Minister Scott Igent mentioned in an interview with CNBC, which is a variant on the table.

Meanwhile, Trump has raised a number of long -standing stimuli, except for Fentonil, including the protection of Canada around its dairy industry.

Earlier, Ottawa warned of a greater countermeter when the negotiations fall, although political appetite may decrease.

Redaling tariffs “seemed not to have the influence we hoped,” David Abby said.

Paying, Professor Hampson said, “Americans have the dominance of escalation. So you want to be reasonable.”

Carney’s press -secretary refused to say whether there was more countermerme on the table. Meanwhile, Canadian negotiators were in Washington most of this week and continue to press the negotiations forward, with the minister responsible for Canada-Zash Speech trade on Friday The permissible agreement “has not been visible yet”.

“We all crave certainty of the transaction,” said Ms Finno.

But the study of her business group suggests that firms make up plans for emergencies. Almost 40% of exporters of goods have already diversified suppliers outside the US, and 28% were diversified buyers.

They also look forward to what can be more complex negotiations with CUSMA, which has proven a critical back platform because it is ready for consideration next year.

All this is a part of the broader push of the country to diversify the trade from the US, to pull the barriers that hindered trade between the provinces, and faster to push for major projects.

Economic ties between both countries will remain strong – Canada will still become one of the largest trading partners and allies for the US economic and security.

But the irony is that Trump’s threats can “make Canada understand that we need to get our own economic house,” said Ms. Hall Findley.

“It will bring some really tough solutions. And I think our current government will get it.”