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July 18, 2025 Bremen, Bremerhaven: The containers are processed in the overseas port.
Drawing alliance Drawing alliance Gets the image
The tariff simulator shows a sharp drop in the US as a result of the president Donald Trump A new trading deal with European Union.
On Sunday, Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU after discussion with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der leyen. Trump said the transaction imposes 15% tariff on most European goods in the US, including cars.
As depending on Simulator tariffs According to the platform of visualization and distribution of data on the Internet, the Economic Complex Observatory (OEC), the projected world exports in the US in 2027 will decrease by more than 46% compared to the average in the last three years or 2.68 trillion. Dollars. The US exports are expected to increase by 12% compared to the average in the last three years, or $ 1.59 trillion.
The prognosis relies on an extended gravitational model designed to predict how trade can be renovated in response to the announced trade transaction between the US and only the EU. This forecast does not include the influence of all the broad tariffs set on August 1.
“While the US imposes tariffs for the world, the world does not impose one. Director of the Collective Training Center and Datawheel founder who built the OEC tariff simulator.
“The point here is that many of these scenarios will have a natural tendency to overcome their trade relations from the US.
Idalal explained the tariff impact using Germany as an example: idolha. “Exports are reduced to what we could expect if the tariffs would remain the same as January 1, 2025.”
According to 15% of the tariff script, which predicts the tariff simulator, the US will import more from the UK ($ 22.5 billion), France ($ 10.2 billion) and Spain ($ 5.65 billion) and less from China (-485 billion), Canada (-300 billion) billion).
As a result of the decline in China’s exports to the US according to this script, China is expected to import more from Russia ($ 70 billion), Vietnam ($ 34.4 billion) and Saudi Arabia ($ 28 billion) than the US
Chinese imports are expected to decline by $ 101 billion.
Logistics experts have warned for months that even with tariff rates at lower rates than the original “mutual” rates Announced in April, the products are still costly.
A application The tariffs will make a lot of products more expensive for imports, and companies will refuse supplies. Retail executives say Lack of product The variety on the US shelves, which is used to US consumers.
Andrew Abbot, CEO of Nice Ocean Carrier Atlantic Container Line, says the tariff resolution will be a decisive factor for some European shippers.
“I saw several ocean orders of high-cost products (construction machinery, agricultural machinery, aerospace space, transformers, etc.) put all the orders for maintenance,” said Abbot.
“It all depends on the tariff rate. For example, an American client who buys $ 300,000 can potentially have $ 90,000 in tariffs that are estimated on it, so some companies are waiting for the tariff rate,” he said. “Companies that bring low -content items, on the other hand, continue to order the product.”
Companies are most exposed to
Based on trade data collected and analyzed by OEC, overhead accounts are receipts on containers that detail the product and the company information – show that IKEA is the main American company that imports with the EU by 28%. The next 9%were wine and spirits of the South Glaser, followed by continental tire (4%), Bosch (4%), Dole Food Co. (3%) and Diageo (2.3%) as the best importers.
Studying EU higher exports to the US Products Category shows that furniture leads a list of 11%and then rubber tires in 7%, overlays by 6%and wine – 5%.
