Will Trudeau resign? Four paths a Canadian Prime Minister could take

The future of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks uncertain after the sudden resignation of his most senior cabinet member, a once close ally.

Chrystia Freeland — a former deputy prime minister and finance minister — resigned Monday with an open letter to Trudeau outlining her disagreements with him over spending and the “best way forward for Canada.”

Those differences, she said, have been accentuated by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian goods — tariffs that economists say could deal a devastating economic blow to Canada.

Questions are now being asked on Parliament Hill, including by some members of his own Liberal Party, about whether he is fit to lead at this critical time.

He has several options moving forward.

Trudeau has led the Liberal Party of Canada since 2013 and has served as Prime Minister of Canada for just over nine years, since 2015.

According to the party constitution, the leader can resign at any time. If he takes effect immediately, an interim leader is appointed until party members can meet and vote on a new permanent leader.

Trudeau may also remain in office until a new leader is elected.

Once a new leader is appointed, Trudeau will have to relinquish his prime ministerial powers and hand them over to his successor.

Trudeau has not signaled that he will voluntarily resign anytime soon.

In an emergency meeting with his group following Freeland’s departure, Trudeau told fellow Liberal members of parliament (MPs), including those who had directly called for him to resign, that multiple reports said he would need time to think.

And in a celebratory speech to the Liberal Party faithful on Tuesday, he admitted politics faced “big challenges” but said: “Difficult times are not the time to stop. It’s time to be ambitious, to be bold.”

Trudeau has been under pressure since the summer because of his plummeting approval ratings and a series of special election losses in once-safe Liberal seats that signal deep trouble for his party.

In October, he faced a small group when 24 MPs signed a letter calling for his resignation.

Polls show that if Canada’s federal election were held today, the official opposition Conservative Party would win decisively.

Trudeau has held on despite these challenges and has repeatedly vowed to run again as Liberal leader in the next election.

Only 13 of 153 Liberal MPs have so far openly called for him to step down — almost half of them are not seeking re-election themselves, according to CBC News tracking.

However, according to the party’s charter, the position of leader can only be formally put to a vote by members after an election defeat.

The Conservatives, who are riding high in opinion polls by double digits, have been trying for months to call an election by introducing a series of no-confidence motions in the House of Commons.

If the government loses a confidence vote or a House vote, it is expected to resign or seek a dissolution of parliament, leading to a federal election.

A vote of no confidence in the government requires the support of a majority of the 338 members of parliament. The Liberals are 17 seats short.

Conservative efforts failed after the NDP or Bloc Québécois backed the Liberals in exchange for support in advancing their own policy priorities.

With Parliament adjourning for the holidays on Tuesday, Trudeau won’t face the threat of another confidence vote until at least late January.

On Monday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called for Trudeau’s resignation for the first time, leaving the Liberals’ hold on power looking increasingly shaky.

The leader of the House of Representatives of the NDP told the CBC that his members will vote of no confidence if the prime minister is still the leader in the New Year.

One way Trudeau could avoid a vote is to prorogue parliament — essentially a suspension that would stop all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving parliament.

Although this is a normal part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during a political crisis.

Parliament was last prorogued by Trudeau in August 2020, when his government faced an ethics scandal over its performance of a contract with a charity.

It was also used to avoid a vote of no confidence in Trudeau’s predecessor, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who prorogued parliament in December 2008 as federal opposition parties tried to form a coalition government.

Parliament resumed work in January 2009. By then, the coalition had fallen apart, allowing Harper to remain in power.

Whatever Trudeau decides to do, an election in the coming months is inevitable.

Canada’s next election is due in October or sooner, and ultimately it’s the voters who can decide his future.