Asia is drunk, but who wins?

“Deeply regrets” as Prime Minister of Japanese, Shiger Isib, described the last tariff threat to US President Donald Trump – 25% collection of Japanese goods.

Tokyo, a long -standing ally of the United States, is very hard to avoid this. He is looking for concessions for his car manufacturers by resisting pressure to open his markets to American trait.

There were many rounds of negotiations. Japan’s Minister of Trade visited Washington at least seven times since April, when Trump has announced wide tariffs against friends and enemies.

And yet, these trips seem to carry little fruit. Trump’s Leibl for Tokyo moved from “hard” to “tainted” when the negotiations were drawn.

And then this week Japan entered the list of 23 countries that were sent by tariff letters – 14 of them are in Asia. From South Korea to Sri Lanka, many-exporting hubs.

On Friday, Trump announced 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada.

The president also said he plans to raise tariffs from 10% to 20% for most trading partners, rejecting problems that further levies could push inflation.

“We just say that all other countries will pay, whether 20% or 15%. We will work now,” he said NBC News.

In the world, there are until August 1 to conclude from the USA. But they are most likely wondering about their chances, given that Japan, an unwavering ally who is openly engaged in the transaction, still confronts with steep penalties.

Trump Drop the clock tariffs – again. So who wins and who loses?

In one sense, almost all countries aimed at Trump earlier this year use the expiration of the term – they have three more weeks to make a deal.

“The optimistic case is that there is a pressure now to participate in further negotiations until August 1,” said Suang Keen Kin, head of the United Overseas Bank research.

Economics such as Thailand and Malaysia, which received tariff letters this week, will be particularly seeking the solution. They also fall into the middle of the tensions in the US-China, as Washington is aimed at Chinese exports, which is transformed through third countries, known as transgeted goods.

Economists have stated the BBC that probably further expansion, given the complexity of trade agreements.

The countries will need time to implement Trump’s requirements, which, by coming on the letters, are not quite clear, said business teacher Alex Capri of the National University of Singapore.

For example, transgeted goods are specifically charged as part of Vietnam’s trading transaction. But it is unclear whether it is applied to the finished products or to all imported components.

In any case, it involves a much more sophisticated technology to track the supply chains, Mr. Capri said.

“It will be slow, long -term and the process involving many third parties, technology companies and logistics partners is developing.”

It seems that the tariffs here remain, which makes global trade a loser.

Mr. Capri said companies from the US, Europe and China with world enterprises are threatened. It hurts not only exporters, But also American importers and consumers.

And this is a blow to the economic ambitions of large parts of Asia, the growth of which was fueled by production, from electronics to textiles.

Mr. Capri because international trade, especially between us and China, is so deeply linked to zero sums in which countries win and lose.

Some countries, however, may lose more than others.

Vietnam was the first in Asia to make a deal, but it has a small lever against Washington, and now faces up to 40%. The same goes for Cambodia. The poor country, which depends heavily on exports, is negotiating the agreement as Trump threatens 35% of tariffs.

South Korea and Japan, on the other hand, can hold longer because they are richer and have stronger geopolitical leverage.

India, which also has its own, has not yet been issued a letter. The deal seemed inevitable but Seems to be delayed by key pointsIncluding access to the Indian Agricultural Market and the country’s import rules.

“Despite close economic and military relations with the US, Japan is interpreted the same as other Asian trading partners,” said Economist Esper Kol.

And this can transform relationships, especially to Tokyo, with its large financial reserves, it seems ready for a long game.

“Japan was a tough negotiator, and I think it is annoying Trump,” Mr. Kol said.

Despite the rice deficit that has sent growth prices, PM ISHIBA refused to buy us rice, choosing instead of protecting domestic farmers. His government also refused to yield to us demands to increase his military expenses.

“They are well prepared,” Mr. Kol claimed. He said the day after Trump announced tariffs in April, Tokyo announced an economic emergency and created hundreds of consulting centers to assist the affected companies.

“Japan will look for a reliable deal,” he said, because Trump’s guarantee does not change his mind again?

Given the elections to Japan this month, it would be strange if the agreement is agreed by August, Mr. Kol said.

“Nobody is satisfied. But this is what will make the recession in Japan?”

Asia has long been regarded as a key battlefield between Washington and Beijing, and analysts say that Trump can give way to the Trump tariffs.

In the first place, given how difficult these deals can be, Trump can overcome his hand, extending again, according to some observers.

“The US position was actually reduced because they showed that their hand is not really as strong as they would like,” said Nus Economics Professor David Jacks.

And the transactions that are that can come through the restructuring trade and communications built for decades.

Trump’s choice to place letters on the Internet, not through traditional diplomatic channels, can contact the fire, said Mr. Capri, who called it a “political theater”.

The confusion caused by China is a “great gift” that tries to reflect itself as a stable alternative to Trump’s unpredictability, he added.

But the US market is not easy to replace – and Beijing has its own share with the countries of this part of the world, from Vietnam to Japan.

China is in the middle of its own trade negotiations from the US, although it has a greater number of agreement – by August 13.

So who wins more friends in this trade war is hard to say, but the race is still ongoing.

“Both sides see the need for divorce,” said Professor Jacks, “but it will be tough and it will be a trial that will cover the years if not for decades.”