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In the picture here-building at one high-end Sunac Opus apartment in Beijing on October 17, 2024.
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A great story
Decrease in real estate prices – elephants in the room when it comes to China’s economy.
From June 2023 to June 2025. Data Posted last week by China Index AcademyResearch firm. Beijing and Shanghai saw similar double prices.
This is a bitter pill to swallow the owners of houses who hope to profit. Recent decades of real estate acceleration prices in China have been many in China before they were even built or completed, which fueled the speculative bubble with the following Evergrande loud values and other developers.
Now, even when the authorities tried to resolve the financial risks, the real estate market is far from rebound.
“The market is in the bottom of the bottom, but not yet below,” Zhu Ning, author of “Guaranteed Bubble in China,” said Monday on Monday. He noted that the real estate market has restored the decline after some stabilization over the past few months.
Zhu expects the prices to decline by another 20% to 30% over the next two years before the market stabilizes. At the same time, he said, “politicians should be patient” and can try to use zoning or other methods to create a state -owned building.
Recently, officials from the Chinese Ministry of Housing visited the provinces of Guangdong and Zhejiang to check the local real estate market, and called for greater stabilization of efforts, State media stated on Friday. The report also provides for the construction of safer and quality houses.
Since the end of September, the leading Chinese leaders set a new tone by calling Stop to reduce the real estate sector.
Earlier, Beijing was focused on restraining the financial market, hacking high dependence on growth debt, starting since 2020. However, in conjunction with the impact of the pandemic, the developers fought for the completion of construction on pre -provided apartments, which even more consumed consumers.
Several buyers of the house that bought apartments from a little -known developer in Tianjin, near the Beijing city, reported CNBC last year that they were promised that the units would be delivered in 2019. So far, there was no word about the progress of construction.
Alpha in shrinkage
Despite the trouble that is tormented by China’s real estate market, there was a bright place.
China Jinmao Holdings increased its land purchases since the end of 2024 and increased by 21% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the period of the year, Fitch analysts said on June 30. This is contrasted with 10.8% drop for the best Chinese builders, the report said.
“Local authorities prefer smaller, better projects to meet the demand for modernization, resulting in large cities and much higher land cities in major cities,” Fitch said, noting that the governments in smaller cities have significantly reduced the supply of land to developers.
Even if the vision of many blank showcases in Beijing reflects the overall economic slowdown, the passage through the common capital of China detects a handful of development of high -class real estate in the gas pipeline.
This is a similar spectacle in Shanghai and Hangzhou, where Hong Kong developers Properties and Shui on the ground are among those who are high -level apartments located in the city downtown, says Qin Gang, a Beijing Consultation Consultation, which means Ode & Song Cultor Industry. This is in accordance with the translation of CNBC its tangerine remarks.
He said the purposeful buyer is not an average family, but a household with an existing house, which now wants to go to the unit in the best place. “Now the developers are fighting for this (species) of the client.”
Unlike this, “people who have the average income who could buy houses, their profits have now dropped, or they have lost their jobs,” Qin said.
Depressive demand
The impact of reducing property continues to weigh on consumer mood.
“Property is a key to consumption,” said Macquarie’s chief Chinese economist in Larry Hu. “The fall in housing prices has led to a negative impact on consumption wealth, since housing accounts for 60-70% of the well-being of households.”
In the Friday report he warned that Better than expected growth by 6.4% In May, retail sales were supported by one -time sales and state subsidies.
China, over the past few weeks forbidden alcohol from government nutrition and released tougher rules about how many officials can spend on trips related to work– 40 yuan (5.57 dollars) for dinner – What prompted the culture of savings.
Retail sales are expected to slow down to 5.6% a year earlier, the Reuters survey reports. It is planned that the National Bureau of China will release data on Tuesday.
Consumption is not the only area of impact. Real estate and related industries, such as construction, once made up more than a quarter of China’s economy.
“Being the largest and most important branch of China for so long, the adjustment of the real estate market has a long and deep impact on the Chinese economy,” Zhu said. “Reduction of the real estate sector significantly reduces the financial income of local authorities.”
This monetary crunch, in turn, pushed many local authorities to collect more taxes either Find other ways to extract money from businesses.
This is the perfect storm of events weighing China’s economy, even without a trade war.
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Need to know
China Starbucks attracts applications that estimate it up to $ 10 billion. About 30 interested buyers submitted insurmountable offers on business Starbucks in China by evaluating it up to $ 10 billionThree people familiar with the transactions process, CNBC reported. The company evaluates proposals, proposals on transactions and value-making table after buyers in the short list.
This year, Hong Kong IPO Pipeline on the track is superior to Wall Rate. This year, PWC predicts up to 100 initial public proposals in Hong Kong, the total fundraiser exceeded $ 25.5 billion. This would make the city in the world The greatest destination of the list This year, surpassing NASDAQ and New York exchange.
Baidu Bolsters competitions in AI chatbots. Chinese technological gigan Bake has Strengthened its main search platform by artificial intelligence In the biggest overhaul of the product in 10 years. Analysts have reported CNBC that this step was proposed to outperform rapidly developing competitors such as Deepseek rather than traditional search players.
The Central Bank of China is increasing the purchase of gold. The People’s Bank of China has added to its official gold reserves for eight months in a row, with the latest official data showing Increase 70 000 ounces of Troy Bulls in June.
– Eniek Bao
In the markets
The stocks listed on the mainland China and Hong Kong fell after Trump turned off the tariff extension period, which began on August 1.
Morale Hang the Index . The mainland landmarks increased by 1.6% for the year today, the LSEG data showed.
. Lee In Shan
Shanghai composite’s performance over the last year.
Applicable
July 14: Trade data for June
July 15: retail sales, industrial production and investment data for June
