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Hello, this is Amala Balakrisner writing from Singapore. This week I study the prospects for Indian shares in the second half of the year and how it is compared to its other Asian market.
Daily Activity in Old Delhi shows overload, overpopulation and lifestyle
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A great story
Six months ago 2025. The forecast for Indian shares looked away from the pink.
The Indian stock market entered the year from the correction, and my conversations with market observers were gloomy, and many predicted salary and numerous estimates.
When we stand halfway in the year, we can say with confidence that the Indian actions had a tumultuous six months marked by the bull after a wide tariff campaign of US President Donald Trump, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A, A. a sharp saleand Signs of recovery.
However, the MSci India Index, which records 157 large and medium-cap performance, increased by only 5.68%, almost seven percentage points less than the Asia-Pacific Index.
Meanwhile 50-speed Nifty 50 So far this year, Benchmark added 8%, not reaching 19.6% profits in the Hang Seng Kong Index and 29.4% growth in the Kospi South Korea index.
My talk about what was not too long ago one of The highest effective stock markets in the worldThey moved from euphoria to cautious optimism in the short term.
“The Indian markets reached the maximum in September last year, and then corrected all the way to February before bounced to the peak level. However, the revenue for a quarter continued to slow down, so we returned to the first,” the Promod Gubi, co-founder of the Marcellus investment, told me.
Experts also expressed concern about India’s ability to resist competition from regional peers, which boast cheaper multiple, as well as have a favorable demographic that supports consumption growth.
A strong contender is on Hong Kong, who saw the splash on the lists And it is reported that it attracts new interest from global funds.
Vivek Subramaanyam, Founder and CEO of the Investment Bank and Asset Asset IM Global Capital, suggests that Nifty 50 Trade at 60% of the Hang Seng Index and 70% premium for its developing peers.
“Such regions as Taiwan and ex-kits that develop in Asia, with stronger growth prospects, can potentially surpass India,” he said.
However, Subramaanyam expects the income of Indian companies to the stock in 2026. It will grow by approximately 15%, or 17% higher than its peers in New Asia, and twice as much as the Hang Seng Index.
He expects Indian markets to “make another clear profit” up to 9% to 10% in the next six months.
Trading transaction between the United States and India – expected very quickly – would allow the higher range to come, as this will indicate a reduction in the protectionist policy of India, explained Subramaanyam.
“India’s estimates are certainly increased compared to other developing markets and short-term growth is limited. But I believe that a recent slowdown and constant recovery of growth make a good time for selective purchase of Indian stocks on average and long-term,” he added.
Bet on India
As the investors make rates on India, Subramaanyam warned the need to be careful when collecting stocks.
Subramaanyam is looking for companies with the highest profitability and what it calls “repetitive income”, which for the 5-year period are predictable and sustainable.
One of these companies is the Home First Finance Company India, which offers housing loans that serve low and average income layers in India.
“People will always need housing loans. Thus, there is a inherent stream of revenue for a company that, in my opinion, can be connected in the next few years, given the increasingly young population of India,” – explained Subramany.
Gubbi Marcellus is similarly looking for companies with strong balances and cash, which can be easily expanded for NDDKR, advertising and even initiatives to improve performance for staff, which can eventually lead to better performance and profit growth.
I asked if it had an advantage for value over quality stocks and names with great or small capitalization.
He said: “I believe that the price and quality have a pretty good representation in different market limitation spectra. You really can’t say that all the big caps of the cap, a small hat are a value.”
Large hats, according to Gubby, are traded at a discount on small hats, as the latter have a “disproportionate amount of fund streams”, partly from the retail investors’ investment in home mutual funds.
It has an approach from the bottom up to the choice of shares, which is agnostic for sectors and market capitalization.
Gubby, however, added that the executives of the Flexi CAP mutual funds are increasingly advocating large caps over the names with small capitalization when deciding on distribution, “partly because the estimates are still relatively below.”
Long -term game
Has an conclusion from a conversation to Subramaanyam, Gubbi and Kevin Carter, founder of the EMQQ Global, corresponds to: India-long game.
Gubby tells me that “forecasting short -term shares not only typical but also to a certain extent useless.”
India, the Carter added, is a place where every investor on the market should have their own money.
“India’s population is more than all other developing markets, except China. So, it is perfect on paper. It has the largest population, the best demographics, the fastest growth, and it causes consumption, so on paper, it is all you might ask,” the Carter added.
The investor – the focus primarily at the New Age technology companies – says Indian online companies offer a stronger impulse of growth and attractive evaluations than their developing peers, despite the fact that they are more expensive.
The companies on which it is betting includes EternalMother’s Company Platform for Delivery of Food Zomato, Travel Technological traffic. Also known as ixigoas well as a set of recruitment and marriage Information Edge.
Carter says these companies in the early supply of their growth, adding that they have huge potential for growth of their income and profit when Indian consumers become richer and spend more over the next decade or two.
It suggests that Indian technical names will see a pickup in the interest of investors in the medium term, when investors seek to spin from American technologies such as so -called magnificent seven shares, against the background of macroeconomic uncertainty and the weaker dollar.
“India has a solid digital state infrastructure and the best leaders working with technology companies. So, this is the perfect place for investors in global investors, especially for online companies that should see its growth,” the Carter added.
Top Election TV on CNBC
Rao Rao, Senior Economist DBS, said there are positive signs that Indian markets can reach new highs. Rao is also optimistic that India may agree with the US, but noted that New Delhi could not reduce the barriers in the agricultural sector too quickly.
Sanji Maturi, Chief Economist Anz on Southeast Asia and India, said that even if the trade agreement with the US does not speak, the hit into the New Delhi economy may not be too significant because trade is “quite small growth” of India.
– Yeo Boon Ping
Need to know
The “tangible stage” of US trade negotiations. India repulses US demand for access to its domestic market genetically modified cultures, CNBCTV-18 sources said. If the negotiations are crumbled, 26% of “inevitable” tariffs, Said another source.
Eight years of tax on goods and services in India. Launched on July 1, 2017, the GST country turned the Indian economy. CNBCTV-18 destroys different ways of developing tax from its creation and where This is directed in the future.
Indian investigators receive Air India Crash data. Black boxes containing the voice recorder and the recorder of the flight data were restored in mid -June. Investigators hope Information will give an understanding June 12 in Air India – Fatal disaster.
– Yeo Boon Ping
What happened in the markets?
Indian markets traded on a positive territory on Thursday.
Landmark Nifty 50 increased by 0.22%, while the BSE SENSEX index increased by 0.18%, at 12.35 pm Indian standard time.
The 10-year period of the Indian State Bond crop at the 10-year level by 6,293%.
– Amala Balarshner
What happens next week?
July 4: FX India FX reserves
July 9: Crizac IPO Education Consultant, India M3 Monetary
July 10.
