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“Politics does not pour a tail – it’s shaking the whole dog.”
Last week, these strong words from one wealth chapter to CNBC record the restless first half of the trading. They also create the soil for the uncertain second half, where “geo -economy” looks to remain a dominant market force.
Expect this week that attention to returning to monetary policy as central bankers from all over the world – holding their head down against the background of political tensions – are preparing to perform at the ECB forum in Sintro, Portugal.
Report on the break
Over the last six months, much has happened when trading tensions and herbs send stock markets worldwide Haywire.
VIX volatility index is also known as a fear sensor on Wall Rate – in April, as a tariff threat, after which the tariff pauses, caused huge fluctuations in large indexes. Meanwhile, the moments of the Black Swan in the Middle East also kept investors at the border.
DAX Vs. S&P 500
Against the backdrop of all uncertainty, some stock markets have demonstrated excellent stability: in Germany, Dax remains exceeding in Europe, still 18%, followed by London FTSE by 100 to 9%, and the French CAC 40 is behind 5%profits.
But what does it mean for trading in the second half of the year? Goldman Sachs warns that “increased uncertainty policy paired with an aggravated macro -phone will probably support the higher volatility of its own capital in the following months.”
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Central Banks take up the central scene in the sintr
Goldman’s warnings ring loudly in the ears of investors, the scene is established that the central banks returned to the center of attention.
This week, the city of Sintra in Portugal is holding an annual ECB Forum, where international bankers are joining international exchange views for current policy problems.
The sun may well shine in Portugal but President Donald Trump Recent Comments Undoubtedly, he will reject the shadow to the meeting, as he continues to put unprecedented pressure on the chairman of the federal reserve system Jerome Powell.
Literally last week, Trump’s calling Powell intensified, sparking talks about the so -called “Shadow fed the chair“Who could monitor the things until he entered as a chair next year.
Powell also pressed on his peers on monetary policy, calling on the central bankers constantly until they see the influence of trading tariffs: “We are waiting well and learn more about the progress of the economy before considering any adjustments in our political position.”
Europe will need to decide how much it allows the US to approach its policies when ECB President Christina Lagarde, which opens a speech sink on Monday night.
Wait for the penalty tone; her recent OP-U in Financial Times She saw her call to use the euro to use the modern environment and “get global fame”.
The first year of work of power
Next Friday marks the first anniversary of the Labor Party, which takes power in the UK after 14 years of conservative government. Winning a landslide He saw that the cheerful labor force is returning to the longing with the promise of change and growth. But the period of the honeymoon was short -lived.
Quickly forward 12 months and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks to go out to their first year as rating approval of lowering who put it below his rival party leaders, including Nigel Parazha, Liberal Democrat, Sir Ed Davi and Camse Conservatives Badenok.
Starmer collided with great external pressure starting from Public spit with Elon Musk To many foreign policy problems in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even three trading deals – with Europe, India and the very first US agreement – have improved its popularity. But the economic problems at home cause the most dissatisfaction pressure even from within your own party revise certain reforms.
