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On April 29, 2024, Pus -Puzura, South Iran, oil in the Persian Gulf near Basher, in Busher province, southern Iran.
Mortar Nicubazl | Nurphoto | Gets the image
For many years, China has been buying Iranian oil at a discount, and US sanctions on Tehran have virtually united in this trade, analysts have noted, due to the shadow overload chain and the US dollar system.
Chinese customs have not shown that since July 2022, oil delivered from Iran. However, KPler’s analytical tracking data was shown that since 2022 in 2022, since 2022, in 2024, in 2024, in 2024, in 2024, in 2024, almost doubled to 17.8 million barrels since 2022.
In the first five months of this year, this year remained at an elevated level of 6.8 Mbps, which changed little since the same period in 2024.
China remains the largest consumer of Iranian raw materials today. Offered the US Energy Information Administration in Report in May This is almost 90% of Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports to China.
Iran encountered some of the the broadest sanctions that the US have imposed In any country, as Washington sought to stifle the main source of the regime’s income, which was used to finance its nuclear program and militias such as Hamas and Hezbolla. Trump administration actively imposes Fresh sanctions on tankers Participates in the assistance of Iranian raw materials to China.
However, it put a little dent for Iran’s export, said Brian Leisen, a global energy strategist in the RBC Capital Markets markets, which added that “the physical market did not notice any long -term impact on Iranian oil after the administration (Trump) of the administration.”
Iranian oil and petrochemical sales estimates received $ 70 billion in 2023, reports US Congress report Last year.
Foreign oil buyers turn to Iranian oil exporters as they are often sold at a discount compared to the Gulf or Russian suppliers.
Iranian light oil traded approximately $ 6 to $ 7 than in the United Arab Emirates, the Upper Academic Class and the Similar Quality, such as Iran Light-by $ 64 a barrel, Mu SU, a senior oil analyst on Thursday.
Shadow Delivery
Independent refineries in China, known as “kettles”, have been the main buyers of cheap Iranian raw materials in recent years, as large private refineries and public firms still avoid sanctioned raw materials, several industry analysts said.
These seagulls often acquire Iranian raw materials on the set basis, that is, sellers will agree to transport the sea to the delivery location, protecting Chinese buyers from the risk of transportation, said X.
While some Iranian goods are sent directly from Iran to China The Middle East or the Strait of MilkWhere Iranian oil, transferred to the sanctioned vessel, is transferred to non -sanctioned tankers before being sent to China.
“() The Middle East is the oil market with several hills, and when the cargo is transported from the ship to the ship, it is not easy to trace as soon as the documents are translated,” said Purit Oz, president of the Broker’s diplomatic vessel.
Analysts called “fake”, tankers loaded in Iran will do what they call “fake” – where they broadcast fake information about the tanker route to mask their participation in this trade.
These payments are usually made in Renminbi and through small sanctioned US banksProtocrating buyers from the impact of a system that prevails in the US, which allows China’s large international banks to expose.
“Because there is no dollar impact, it is excluded from Swift Payments systems does not create a great obstacle to continuing oil flows,” Brian said. Swift is the main international payment network in the world where Greenback prevails.
“Fake” in Malaysia
In the area to the east of the Malaysia Peninsula there is a noisy activity from the ship and the ship and is a “hot point for Iranian oil”, where crude oil is translated on other vessels before being in China, Bridget Deacun, senior risk analyst and compliance in the Lloyd’s List Intelligence list.
“I recently saw a lot of tankers who push their place in Malaysia, and these ships take additional precautions to hide the ship to the ship and obscure the origin of the cargo,” Diakun said.
As the US continued to strengthen the sanctions, Iranian oil owners and shipping operators have taken additional measures to make the supply chain “more complicated, and tracking ships more confusing” to continue these deals, the Deacons added.
Last year, in Malaysia, Chinese raw raw materials from Malaysia significantly increased to 1.4 million barrels per day with 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023, which exceeded the production of domestic crude oil in Malaysia, about 0.6 million, Eia reports.
Potential weakening?
US President Donald Trump earlier this week surprised by the markets by publication The truth is socially that China can continue to acquire Iranian oil, in the obvious ignoring its preliminary exports of Iran’s oil exports. US collapsed at 6% of the following His comment.
Later, a high -ranking White House official said CNBC that Trump’s comments do not indicate weakening US sanctions.
Xu Claire viewed Trump’s remarks as a “calculated compromise” aimed at encouraging Iran to support ceasefire and re -inclusion in the nuclear negotiations, simultaneously signing China’s “friendly will” before the next round of trade negotiations.
“It is too early to say whether it shows this to the potential refusal of Iranian sanctions,” she said, noting that Washington’s ability to slow down the pace of new sanctions – which would even more support such purchases with Chinese kettles.
Although there is still no “accurate conclusion for Iran, despite the ceasefire, for the market of physical oil, we expect that oil exports will continue, as usual,” said Brian RBC.
Speaking to a press conference at the NATO summit this week, Trump said Iran “would need money to bring this country to form,” increasing the hopes that the mitigation of the “maximum pressure” company against Iran could be on the table.
