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The British pound is widely predicted to continue to grow up to the US dollar.
Matt Cardi | Gets the image
A British pound For three years, he hovers at the highest level – and analysts are divided into potential for further inverted.
The last time on Wednesday morning in London in Britain it was noted that it was trading near $ 1.36.
This was marked by a slight fall since Tuesday, when Sterling reached the highest level since January 2022.
So far this year, the pound grew by 8.7% against Greenbek.
Price GBP/USD
Against the euroHowever, Sterling decreased by 2.9%. The last time it was noticed that the trade is slightly higher than the Eurozone currency, and one pound bought about 1.173 euros.
Dollar weakness
According to Janet Mui, the head of the RBC Brewin Dolphin market analysis, most of the updreaming trajectory of the pound is actually more due to the main weakness of the dollar than the belief in Sterling itself.
“The relative force of the pound was weaker US dollar This year’s story, “she said CNBC by e -mail on Wednesday.
Unpredictable US President Donald Trump’s faltered confidence in US assets earlier this yearWhich, in turn, caused concern in the markets concerning dolorization.
Paul Jackson, the global head of asset distribution studies in Invesco, said Sterling was in restoration of “extraordinary low”, which is observed after former British Prime Minister Liz Truss The so-called mini-budgetspark serious sale On the bonds of the Pound and UK government in 2022.
However, he agreed that most of the movement this year was associated with the weakness of the dollar, pointing to simultaneous cushioning against the euro.
Will Sterling go above?
“I would like to expect this picture to continue in the future, and the dollar weakens together with the US economy (and investors doubt the US financial and tariff policy), while the euro can strengthen optimism regarding the consequences of the future financial increase (especially in Germany),” said Jackson Invesco.
He claimed that the ECB was likely to have completed most of the weakening of the cash for the current cycle, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve “have a lot of catch -ups”.
“In 12 months, I would expect GBPUSD to be about 1.40 and Gbpeur will be about 1.15 (currently 1.17),” Jackson added.
Jackson’s forecast represents approximately 2.9% of the current dollars.
Mui RBC Brewin Dolphin suggested that in the coming months the forecast for the British pound is not too convincing – but noted that geopolitical developments can catalize further movements of the uplift in the long run.
“In the near future, further up the pound can be limited due to a softer economical momentum in the UK and a greater extent for the Bank of England to reduce the rates,” she said.
“Looking forward, one of the potential pound catalysts can improve relations with the EU, especially if it translates into more specific actions over time.”
Brian Mapir, investment manager at Multi Asset Group in Barings, took a more pessimistic look.
“We mix GBP in the medium term. We would predicted EURGBP at 0.875 and GBPUSD by 1.30 in (six months),” he said by Email on Wednesday.
He claimed that the macroeconomic background does not justify the performance of the Sterling against the green lapel this year, attributed to it instead After the liberation sale of the US dollar.
Dollar index to date.
‘Markets were overly bears in the UK Chancellor Riva’s budgethe added. However, we still expect that economic growth and inflation are slowing down; The signs already show which also recognize the Bank of England. This supports further Boe speed and eventually weighs on a pound. “
Mapir also noted that, in his opinion, the risks for dolorization seemed “overpriced”.
“Settings are probably canceled when the prospects for US growth and corporate profits remain elastic,” he said. “Along with the current extreme USD, this should support the USD rebound by dragging the cable below.”
