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Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the first New Year session on January 2, 2025 in New York, USA
Timofey A. Clair | AFP | Gets the image
In the United States, which join the war between Israel and Iran, there may be a geopolitical flash of the neminators that would send markets. Instead, investors are largely abandoning escalation, and many strategists believe that the conflict should contain – and even bulls for some risk assets.
As of 13:00 Singapore time, MSci World IndexThe tracking of more than a thousand major and medium -sized companies from 23 developed markets decreased by only 0.12%. Safe shelters also trade mixed, and Japanese weakens 0.64% to the dollar, while gold spot prices decreased by 0.23% to $ 3360 per ounce. The dollar index, which measures the US dollar per basket, increased by 0.35%.
In general, market reactions after US strikes were less aggressive, especially relatively a little more than a week ago when Israel has launched air strikes against Iran.
“The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief with the nuclear threat that have now gone to the region,” said Dan Ius, the head of the Wedbush director, adding that he sees the minimum risks of the Iran-Israel conflict, which extends to the rest of the region and thus more “isolated”.
Although the severity of recent events should not be rejected, they are not considered as a systemic risk to the world markets, other industry experts have been repeated.
Saturday president US Donald Trump said that The United States attacked the Iranians nuclear Sites. Traders are now closely monitored by any potential countermerse from Iran after the US strikes at its nuclear premises.
The potential closing of Iran’s Strait
Iran’s Foreign Minister warned that his country has reserved “all options” to protect its sovereignty. According to Iranian state media, the country’s parliament also approved the closure of the Hormuz Strait, the main waterway for global oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products through it every day.
“It all depends on how Iran reacts,” said Peter Baokwar, Chief Investment CEO Bleakley Financial Group. “If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires … then it may be the end of the conflict, and the markets will be fine,” he said CNBC. Bockvar does not believe Iran will violate the global oil reserves.
The worst scenario for the markets will occur when Iran will close the strait that is unlikely, said Mark Papik, the Geomacro Chief Strategist.
“When they receive it, oil prices go north of $ 100, fear and panic, shares are reduced ~ 10%, and investors are in a hurry to safe shelters,” he said.
However, the markets obey, given the “limited tools” that Tehran has at its disposal to avenge, the Papik added.
The idea of closing the Hormuz water path was a repeating rhetoric from Iran, but it never acted, and experts emphasized that it was incredible.
In 2018, Iran warned that he could block the Hormus Strait after the US came out of the nuclear transaction and resumed sanctions. Similar threats were made in early 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials, including President-Vice-Mohammad-Rachimi, were closed if Western countries have imposed more sanctions on Iran’s oil exports due to its nuclear activity.
“Tehran realizes that if they closed the Strait, the US revenge would be fast, punitive and tough,” Papik added.
In a similar direction, Yardeni Research founder Ed Jeder said the recent events did not shake his conviction in the US bull market.
“Geopolitically, we believe that Trump has just resumed military containment in America, thus increasing his” peace through the mantra, “he said, adding that by the end of 2025 it was aimed at 6500 for the S&P 500.
While predicting geopolitical events in the Middle East is a “insidious exercise”, Yardeni suggests that the region offers a “radical transformation” when Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed.
