Why Tehran does not blocked Hormuz Strait

As the tension is in the wake of the Israeli blow IranFears have emerged that Tehran could avenge, focusing on one of the most important oil arteries in the world – the Harmus Strait.

Strait Hormuz that connects the Persian Bay with the Arabian Sea, see approximately 20 million barrels a day They go through oil and oil products, which is almost one -fifth global oil shipment. Any step to lock it will be a pulsation through the energy markets.

However, observers about the market believe that a full -scale violation of global oil flows, closing the waterway, unlikely and can even be physically impossible.

In fact, there is no “pure benefit” that comes with the obstacle of oil passing through the Hormus Strait, especially given the Iranian oil infrastructure was not aimed directly, said Ellen Wald, co -founder of the Washington Avy Advisors. She added that any such action probably causes additional revenge.

She also warned that any major splash of oil prices caused by the closure could make a return response from the largest oil client in Iran: China.

“China does not want the flow of oil from the Gulf of Persian, and China does not want the price of oil to grow. Therefore, they are going to bring full weight of their economic power in Iran,” Wald explained.

China – this Number one importer of Iranian oilreportedly accounting for More than three -quarters of oil exports. The second largest economy in the world is Iran’s largest trading partner.

“Their friends will suffer more than their enemies … Therefore, it is very difficult to see what is happening,” said Anas Alhaji, head of the energy Outlook Advisors, adding that the canal violation may be more benchy than the good for Tehran, given the most daily consumption of Iran.

“This is not in their interest to cause problems because they will suffer first.”

Iran in 2018 threatened to close the Strait of the Highus When the tension arose after the US abolition from the nuclear transaction and the re -accounting of the sanctions. Before that, another serious threat came in 2011 and 2012 warned of potential closure when the West hit further sanctions About its oil exports through its nuclear program.

The Horm Strait, which is 35 to 60 miles (55 to 95 kilometers) width, connect Persian Bay and the Arabian Sea.

The idea to close the waterway of Horum was a repetitive rhetorical instrument, but never acted, and analysts say it is simply impossible.

“Let’s be real about the Horzuz Strait. First of all, most of them are in Oman, not in Iran. Number two, it’s wide enough that Iranians cannot close it,” Alhaja said.

Similarly, Washington’s advisers ivy noted that although many ships go through Iranian waters, the courts can still pass alternative routes through the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“Any blockade of the Strait of Highuz will be an” extreme resort “for Iran and probably depending on military interaction between us and Iran,” said Vivek Dhar, Director of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Mining and Energy Research.

Helima Croft RBC Capital Markets suggested that while there may be some breakdowns, a full -scale blockade was unlikely.

“We realize that Iran would be extremely difficult to close the strait over a long period, given the presence of the fifth US fleet in Bahrain. However, Iran can still start attacks on tankers and shedding the marine traffic,” said Croft, head of the global commodity strategy and Mena Research.

US President Trump has warned of possible hostilities If negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program are destroyed, but it is uncertain whether these threats to raise the US-Iran-Iran or simply increase the pressure at the negotiating table, Dhar said.

Israel held a wave of airstrikes in Iran on Friday morning, saying the attacks had been directed to the facilities related to Tehran’s nuclear program.

According to the Iranian state media, the strikes were killed by Mohammad Hassein Bagger, the chief of the Iranian armed forces, as well as Josein Salami, commander -in -chief of Iran.

Although the closure of the Strait remains unlikely, the escalation conflict has pushed some to consider even a weak opportunity.

“(Closing Strait) is an extreme scenario, though we are in an emergency,” said Bakr, the head of the Middle East and OPEC+ understanding of KPLER.

“So, that’s why I do not put this option completely from the table. We must consider it.”

Raw futures jumped up by 13% After Israel launched airstrikes against Iran at the beginning of Friday. Global benchmark Brent Futures increased by 6.5% at $ 73.88 a barrel as of Singapore’s 4.30pm, while US West Texas intermediate traded 6.7% higher by $ 72.57 a barrel.