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On Saturday, the White House published a study that estimated that 8.2 million more Americans could be without health insurance as a result of the following recession if President Donald Trump was “Big, beautiful bill” The budget does not pass.
The conclusion goes from the White House Council of Economic Advisers Memories called “The cost of health insurance, if the 2025 proposed bill on reconciliation of the budget will not be adopted”.
The study suggests that in the US in 2025 there were approximately 27 million insurance people. If the budget bill is not adopted, it may increase to approximately 36 million insurance people, which is much closer to about 50 million people who were insured before the implementation of the Affordable Care (ACA), also known as Obamacare, in 2010, the meme reports.
President Donald Trump during a special envoy Steve Witco in the Oval House in Washington, May 6, 2025. (Reuters/Kent Nishimura/Phote Photo)
The note states that the assessment “is based on the assumption that states that have expanded Medicaid with relatively generous right to get back to meet the balanced budget requirements and try to provide more support for unemployment during a strong recession.” It also qualifies its findings, saying that the analysis does not involve “no political countermers” that White House Describes as “very unlikely but plausible case.”
The White House projects that the term of Trump’s tax reducing 2017 in 2026 and other upheavals would cause a “moderate and strong recession”. Economic advisers report that the “main recession” will reduce consumer expenses as a result of higher individual taxes, reduce investment in small business and hiring as a result of higher passed taxes, global shock shock, including the concern of the US competitiveness and delay in dollars.
Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump dances at the COBB Energy Center, October 15, 2024 in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)
According to the “upper border” of advisers, the impact is not extended by Trump’s taxes, the US GDP may become infected by about 4% in two years – similar to the 2008 recession. Unemployment can increase by four percentage points, resulting in approximately 6.5 million work losses. Of these 6.5 million work losses, 60% had insurance funded by employers, so approximately 3.9 million in the White House lost their coverage and as a result will become insurance.
The note is also expected to lose individual and market cover, as those without employers insurance can no longer afford to buy insurance. The White House is expected that about 22 million decreased by 15%, enrolled in 2026 to approximately 3.3 million coverage losses.
Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, Ran. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Junior, File)
Without passing “Big, beautiful bill”, “” The Medicaid and ACA subsidized plan enrollment may experience 10% of the credentials, resulting in approximately 500,000 to 1 million lost or received coverage, the memory said. The case of reducing Trump’s taxes in 2017 will be disproportionate to drunk, concert workers and early pensioners, the White House reports. Advisers estimate that people in these work classes without insurance, which are supported by employers will no longer be able to afford coverage as a result of the recession, which will lead to 500,000 to 1 million insurance loss among “vulnerable segments”.
Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, Ran.
The 1116 pages bill includes more than $ 5 trillion in tax reduction, costs that are partially offset by the cost of reduction elsewhere and other changes in the tax code, and make a constant reduction in Trump’s first term.
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He also realizes that many Trump’s promises, including temporarily, stop taxes on overtime and tips for many workers, creating new $ 10,000 tax benefits per car loan for US cars, and even creating a new “Maga account”, which would make $ 1000 to children.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
