Pause, a new splash of freight

According to retail sellers and heads of logistics, another increase in trade from China to the US should go, as the initial transaction on US trade and China makes importers move forward with deliveries during delivery 90-day pause By the coolest tariffs implemented by the president Donald Trump.

Monday’s governments of the US and China announced a trade transactionalthough Details of the US Pact The schematic is still schematic. But in the short term, the most important aspect of the agreement is the suspension of the so -called mutual tariffs, although 10% on 10% based on stock will remain in force, as well as 20% tariff associated with Fentonil.

“I have customers with thousands of containers, pre-downloaded in China who are ready to come,” said Paul Basher, Vice President of the Global Supply Settings on his logistics. For the next four-six weeks, he expects a splash of containers, calling a 90-day pause “the main moment for planning supplies from China”.

“The tariff for 30% for 90 days will start again for small businesses,” said Bruce Kaminstein, NY Angels member, founder and former CEO of Casabella products. But the return for small businesses does not eliminate their larger worries. “They are being held hostage. The business is in difficult situations, so they will do this work as always,” he said.

“The tariffs at the 20% level did not stop the carriers from the front -line front and April, ”said Judas Levin, Head of the Freightos Research Department.

Rick Muscat, President of Family Retheral Deer’s Shoes, who import his goods from China and sells from major retailers, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, JcPenney, and Amazon, CNBC reports that 30% of the tariffs will allow it to be recovered from China, but the level.

“Our expenses will approach 40%,” Muscot said. “So we will have to raise prices for autumn deliveries.”

Muscat said the recreation time will lead to even more imports. Without the opportunity to find out whether a permanent transaction will be reached, and with the main part of the rest products that are necessary to leave China in August and September, “there will be a lot of inventory that is loaded due to the uncertainty that arises from a 90-day pause,” he said.

The disappointment with the Trump administration for trading policy, which hacked and already cost their business remains. Moskot said Related composition – The safe repository, which is under the supervision of US customs officers without tariffs, – wait and find out if tariffs will be reduced. The additional storage cost for this container is more than $ 10,000. “Now we will release this inventory into our distribution center and we will absorb all the costs without good reason!” said Muscot. “That’s all.”

Expenditure in global supply chain

A 30% decline in tariffs will also come among the expenses for supply costs as more companies are looking for orders for Frontload. Kaminstein is difficult with a typical gross profitability for consumer goods within 40-50%, at 30% the tariff is difficult to work on many business models.

“For importers as a whole, 30% can still make their products and a total profitability problem,” said Alan Bayer, CEO of OL USA logistics company. “The volume is increasing, space and cost can become another hindrance for the jump, given the number of empty swimming announced by carriers.”

Empty swimming from China’s freight vessels increased throughout the trade war.

Xeneta data shows that a four -week rental for the proposed vessel on the transport trading route from China to the US West coast decreased by 17% since April 20. During the same period, the swimming swimming increased by 86%.

Kaminstein said the combination of prices and some margin absorption, as well as reducing fixed costs, said Kaminstein, and big questions remain unanswered for business owners: “Unpredictable killer for business. How do you quote 90 days?

Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Association and Shoes, says the pause is a good development, but it will not stop price increase. “Unfortunately, the residual 30% tariff (drawn up at the top of existing sections 301 and MFN) will still make the expensive season of preschool school and the festive season for most Americans,” Lamar said. “If freight tariffs due to destroyed tariffs from the interruptions that will take months to relax, we could see how costs and prices crawl on.”

In some retail niches, tariffs remain much higher. The Matt priest, the CEO of the District Shoes and Retail of America, tells CNBC that some children are still subordinated to 97.5%, even with a decrease, because of the previous duties that are still charged on the product.

“This is unacceptable. We have outlined the obvious, reasonable exceptions in our letter to the administration, and we urge them to take measures to facilitate the burden on Americans. Our industry needs help – and just as making the families we serve,” the priest said.

Critical branches say that inventory is running low

In addition to retailers, the Director -Generals across the economy continue to talk to the legislators about the influence of tariffs in critical industries, while they are in a hurry to bring orders. Eric Bayer, CEO of the Alliance on Chemical Distribution, said the damage to the chemical chain of supplies has been inflicted and now there will be snowdrops to replenish stocks during the break new tariffs, with some gaps in time, if possible.

“A couple of our largest members said over the weekend that they all had done that they had overcome them before the Memorial Day,” Bayer said. “After that, the fear is set as the warehouses that are now in the full range of 80-90%, will be quickly declining by less than 10% to mid-June,” he said. “I suspect that we will see an incredibly active madness that will have too little ships ready again (such as Covid again),” he added.

Bayer said the inventory is already extremely dense for phosphoric acid, used in detergents and cleansers, a wide range of beverages (such as lemon, soda, sports drinks, etc.) and fertilizers. Other chemicals in which the reserves are dense, include ascorbic acid contained in vitamin C, bicarbonate ammonia used to make baking/cleaning, and sodium thiocyanate, a critical chemical for concrete used in construction.

Peak Delivery Season will be “strong” on Q3

“This will start the peak season and will go through the third quarter,” Basher said. “There are many construction and production projects planned for 2026, and these companies have terms to strike, and projects are being carried out in early 2026.”

Any progress in Trump’s tax account and other deregulation policies, as well as any decrease in the Federal Reserve interest rate, can also fueled a splash resume in 2026.

Peter Sand, Chief Delivery Analyst at Xeneta, warns that overstress will lead to ugly overseas freight prices. “Ocean cargo transportation can make up to 20% in the short term from China to the west coast of the United States,” said Sand. This will come off with a great decrease in the rates. According to Xeneta, average points are reduced by 56% and 48% from China to the US and East coast of the United States since January 1.

“Cossacks will take a 90-day window to deliver as many goods as possible, and this will put pressure on freight tariffs,” Sand said. “Carriers responded to the drop in volumes from China to the US, reducing the power delivery capacity and redistribution to other transactions, such as the Far East to Europe. It will take time to change power again, so the revival in the volume of China may mean that trucks must pay” for chances “.

Stephen Edward, CEO of Port -Virginia, tells CNBC that he was considering and planned scenarios that would lead to a splash of Chinese containers.

“We all returned to our financial models of what happened during COVID.

He added that the most important thing in the supply chain is an opportunity to find out what a “playing field” is. “Once we learn about the game conditions, the supply chain is very agile. Yes, there are parts of the supply chain that take longer, but very soon we all adapt to this new environment,” he said.

“What is needed now is a long-term deal not only with China, but with all our trading partners, we can predict long-term trade, investment and search for decisions,” Lamar said.

Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said the temporary pause is the most important first step to provide short -term assistance for sellers and other companies ahead of the holiday season. He added that the US-Kita agreement “laid the basis for significant progress” not only with China but also with many other countries.

But many businesses will continue to expect more confidence before making significant production and investment decisions, given the changing nature of these problems, according to Adoniro Cestari, the head of trade and Citi working capital. He added that, apparently during the COVID pandemic, regardless of short -term results, companies would be more active in risk management Strategies related to possible long -term volatility around tariffs and barriers.

“The uncertainty continues is a difficult way to do business!” said Muscot.