What to expect from us and Chinese trade negotiations

Rates high for This weekend, US and Chinese trade in icebreakers may reset the future of economic relations between the two largest economies in the world.

US Finance Minister Scott Baby and Trade Representative Jamison Grir is scheduled to meet with the leading Chinese economic representative and the Vice Premier -the HE LIFENG minister in Switzerland on Saturday.

Analysts say the deal is unlikely to be a deal, but they hope that there will be a partial rolling of high tariffs to heaven.

Both sides are looking for a path to de -escalation as economic tariffs are getting harder to ignore.

American economy signed a contract at 0.3% in the first quarter This year against the background of concern that the economy will be slip into the recession with greater inflation and unemployment. And while the Chinese economy grew Better than expected 5.4% In the first three months of this year, large banks reduced their complete country growth forecasts to only about 4%for the government’s goal by about 5%.

Trump may still lose more as the Chinese political system gives the country’s “higher pain” leadership and “a greater extent to the Macro -Political Support in the short term,” said Dan Van, Director of Political Counseling at the risk of Eurosia Group.

Deputy Prime Minister. He is the main mission to just look for the clarity of what Trump wants, and estimates whether the US intends to hurt China’s interests, Van said.

The fact that it seemed to increase the confidence before the meeting, China has published trading data This showed that its exports increased by 8.1% a year in April at the back of the jumping in the state countries of South Asia, throwing a 21% drop in the USA in the US

And on Friday the Ministry of Commerce in China launched “Special Operation” To combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, including Gaul, Germany, Surima, tungsten and medium and heavy rare land.

Without naming specific structures, the ministry made an operation as “repression on foreign organizations that conspired with internal illegal staff” Rules Export Management It rose earlier this year.

“This serves as a useful reminder of the leverage that China is owned as the negotiations will be conducted in Geneva,” said Stephen Olson, a senior employee of the Southeast Asia Research Institute and a former US trade negotiator.

China is the world The largest manufacturer of several important minerals It is important for the manufacture of semiconductors, defense equipment and clean energy. As part of distinctive measures against Trump tariffs announced last month, China has Increase control over exports metals.

“The most sharp arrow that China in its Kalchan will restrict access to the US to critical minerals that cannot easily get elsewhere,” Olson said.

High on the agenda Washington is fixing Remove restrictions on China’s export to rare land It was used to make magnets, Bloomberg reports on Friday, citing people who are familiar with this question.

Another potential pressure point for Trump is China’s great possessions on the US Treasury, which can create risks to the financial market stability, said Wu Sinbo, Director of the Food University Center.

Beijing is likely to even cut off nearly $ 800 billion even more US state debt reserves if he wants to be exposed to Trump, Wu said.

Despite the assumptions on the market that China can unload its treasury possessions to return to the tariffs, and a significant sale can also retreat. Such a step can strengthen the yuan, undermining the competitiveness in China, and lead to significant losses on its assets intended for dollars.

‘De -escalation, bringing these rates where they could, where they should be, I think said CNBC on Friday. “And this is what the president hopes that this is a good result, this is a de -love world where we return to each other and then we work on a great thing.”

During the press conference of the White House to sign a trade transaction with Britain, Trump said about Switzerland Meeting: “I think we’ll have a good weekend with China.”

The US president then said in a social media platform on Friday that “80% of the tariff on China seems correct! Down to Scott B.”

Chinese officials, on the other hand, stirred the tone, repeating the country’s demand for Trump administration to cancel all unilateral tariffs for China.

The press secretary of the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that “China does not bring the principle to reach (a) with us” while repeating that Washington should “correct its violations”, removing all unilateral tariffs.

China justify Released duties on imports on individual pharmaceuticals, microchiki and aircraft engines from the United States. According to Reuters, he also created the “White List” of American goods to be released from additional levies.

However attempts to reach a more complete deal similar to The first transaction phase is signed during Trump’s first termIt will probably be “prolonged and unproductive,” the SI said, as both sides showed little appetite for compromise about the relevant strategic priorities and economic red lines.

“We seriously doubt the possibilities of the US and China, reaching something close to the stage of the first trade agreement reached in 2020 – a model that was discredited in the eyes of high -ranking American officials,” the SU added.

China had Allegedly this is done Conditions under Phase first trading deal The fact that Trump struck Beijing during his first presidential term, stating that the United States violated certain mandates in the agreement.

The transaction requires did not meet the goals As a Covid-19 pandemic.