Tund Lis – Fire Tanzanian Political Survive

16 times in an attempt in 2017, Tinda Liss is a great survival in Tanzanian politics – and one of the most persecuted politicians.

But some ask if he reached the end of the line.

Lis, leader of the main opposition party, Chadema, again in the focus after charge of treason – a crime for which the maximum term is the death penalty.

However, it is uncertain. Despite the huge risk, he believes he may put pressure on the government in October to introduce reforms ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections.

But can he bring a thunderstorm in a harsh political environment, and against the fact that he believes politically conditioned?

His party was disqualified from the election and he has been detained in the last two weeks.

In September last year, the fox said the BBC that nothing would come to a silver dish, and the courage would be required to demand reform “on the streets and in the villages”.

To achieve his goals, he felt that he had to take over the guide.

The party, who was engaged in the party, was a critical politician, accusing the then chairman of Freman Mob of well -reconfiguration against the government.

In an intensive race, he removed Mabo from office.

Just three months later, the steering wheel of Chadema Lis was arrested and detained for a speech allegedly urged the public to start an uprising and breaking the election.

He was not allowed to blame for treason, but did not find himself guilty of a separate charge of publishing false information.

Prior to his arrest, he held meetings across the country with a cohesive call “without reforms, no elections”.

He said the current system was rigged in favor of the CCM ruling party, adding that it was not pointing to participate in the elections without reforms.

It should appear again in court on Thursday. He cannot take a bail because he was accused of treason.

His international lawyer Robert Amsterdam told the BBC that it was a “democracy mission mission”.

But this is not an easy task – CCM has won every election after independence, and it is unlikely that it is easy to let go of power.

Chadem also has a gap, and some members disagree with the fox strategy.

Parties are forbidden to challenge the October elections after it refused to comply with the election commission’s request to sign the Code of Conduct.

The main purpose of the document is to make political parties and their supporters well … and support peace and harmony “during the elections.

Chadema perceives the Code of Conduct as a contract that holds the opposition and fears that state repressions will continue.

In September, a senior Chadema party official was abducted and brutally killed amid a wave of state critics’ abductions.

During the local elections in November, Chadema stated that thousands of his candidates were banned from participation. The ruling party received about 98% of places.

The government rejected the proposals that the elections were not free and fair, saying they were held in accordance with the rules.

But for the fox, local elections justified their calls for reforms ahead of presidential and parliamentary polls.

Human Rights Watch group expressed similar fears and urged the government to stop political repression.

The Catholic Church added its voice to call for the unconditional release of the fox and the fair elections.

But the arrest of opposition politicians continues, despite the Prime Minister Kasim Majal, promising earlier this month, the authorities will ensure security and justice in the elections.

BBC turned to the government for comment.

President Sulukh himself Hassan made a greater political freedom with Tanzan after taking office after his predecessor John Magfuli in 2021.

However, Tanzania again “began to see a wave of repression and state orchestrated violence”, which characterized the power of Mogufuli, said the Tanzanian political analyst Nicodema Mind.

It was in that era that the fox survived the murder.

Prior to his arrest, LIS stated that his party had a list of “minimum, but critical reforms to be done to guarantee free elections.”

Mr. Amsterdam, his lawyer, said the BBC that this included the formation of “a truly independent national election commission with members not related to the government,” and this should be laid in the Constitution.

Chadema also requires that when there are electoral disputes, the burden of evidence must lie with the commission to show that the vote was free and fair.

The Lissa strategy came to itself and the Chadema, as a party faction known as the G-55, took a softer position.

He called on the party to challenge Elections during negotiations with the government regarding its requirements.

This is an approach that is accepted by the second largest opposition party.

Along with 16 terry opposition parties, he signed a code of conduct. Only Chadema refused.

It seems that Liss sees neighboring Kenya – where last year mass protests forced the government to give up plans to increase taxes – as a model.

At the time, he told the BBC that the Tanzanians did not “press hard enough for the democratic reform,” and what Kenya survived to get (his) democratic dosage is what we need to do. “

Will such a strategy work unclear, as many Tanzanians seem to be reluctant to publicly support the company that the government may rattle.

But Mr. Amsterdam said that the more adamant the government, the more it will push the Chadema supporters “to” move forward and participate in civil disobedience “.

He added that Chadema would use “every legal and political tool” to achieve change.

But political analyst, Thomas Kibvan, criticized the fox strategy, stating that with the current parliament’s term in late June there would be enough time to give a legal effect to any major reforms before the October choice.

He said that for the Chadem may be better to wait after the election.

Fulgens Mass, Director of Legal Rights Organization in Tanzania, said the BBC that the pressure of Chadema had faced significant obstacles, but the party had the right to go to court to challenge the election exception.

Mr Mind said that when Chadema remained except for the election, the ruling party would probably increase its already vast majority in parliament.

The analyst added that Chadema could even lose his position as the main opposition party, and of course, nature is backing back, and probably other opposition parties will take this opportunity. “

This is the risk that the fox and the party decided to take.