Why a nation of 1.45 billion wants more children

Last year, according to UN estimates, India overtook China to become the most populous country in the world.

With nearly 1.45 billion people now, you’d think the country would be quiet about having more babies. But guess what? The chatter suddenly increased.

The leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – recently advocated increasing the number of children.

Andhra Pradesh is considering providing incentives, citing low birth rates and an aging population. The state too repealed its “two-child policy” in local government elections and reports it is said that neighboring Telangana may soon do the same. Neighboring Tamil Nadu does too similar, more exaggerated, noises.

India’s fertility rate has fallen significantly from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two today.

In 17 of the 29 states and territories, the fertility rate fell below the replacement rate of two children per woman. (The replacement level is the level at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)

Five southern Indian states are leading India’s demographic transition, reaching replacement fertility levels much earlier than others. Kerala reached the milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest by the mid-2000s.

Today, five southern states have a total fertility rate below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, the birth rate in these states is in line with or lower than in many European countries.

But these states fear that India’s changing demographics, with disparate population shares between states, will significantly affect electoral representation and the reasonable allocation of parliamentary seats and federal revenues to states.

“They fear being punished for their effective population control policies, despite the fact that they are better off economically and contribute significantly to federal revenues,” Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Population Institute, told the BBC.

The southern states are also grappling with another major challenge as India prepares for the first over delimitation electoral mandates in 2026 – the first since 1976.

The exercise will redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population shifts, likely reducing the number of parliamentary seats for the economically prosperous southern states. Because federal revenue is distributed by state population, many fear it could deepen their financial struggles and limit policymaking freedom.

Demographers K. S. James and Shubhra Kriti project that populous northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may gain more seats as a result of delimitation, while southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh may face losses, further altering political representation.

Many, including the Prime Minister Narendra Modihinted that changes in fiscal shares and distribution of seats in parliament will not be adopted in a hurry.

“As a demographer, I don’t think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between the federal and state governments,” says Mr Goli. “I’m worried about something else.”

The main problem, according to demographers, is the rapid aging of India, caused by a decline in the birth rate. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach the milestone in just 28 years, says Mr. Goli.

This accelerated aging is due to India’s unique success in reducing the birth rate. In most countries, rising living standards, education, and urbanization naturally reduce birth rates as child survival improves.

But India’s fertility rate has fallen precipitously despite modest socio-economic progress thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that have favored small families through targeted measures, incentives and disincentives.

Unintended consequences? Take Andhra Pradesh for example. The country’s birth rate is 1.5, on a par with Sweden, but per capita income is 28 times lower, Mr Goli says. with mounting debt and limited resources, can such states support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. According to the latest data from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), more than 40% of elderly Indians (60+) belong to the poorest quintile of well-being – the bottom 20% of the population in terms of the distribution of well-being. India Aging Report.

In other words, Mr. Goli says, “India is getting old before it gets rich.”

Fewer children also means higher old-age dependency ratios, leaving fewer caregivers for the growing elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India’s health care, community centers and nursing homes are unprepared for this shift.

Urbanisation, migration and changing labor markets are further undermining traditional family support – India’s strength – leaving more and more elderly people behind.

While migration from populous states to less populous states can reduce the working-age gap, it also raises anti-migration concerns. “Major investment in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure is urgently needed to take care of aging,” says Mr Golley.

As if the concerns of the southern states were not enough, earlier this month the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Organisation), the ideological backbone of Mr Modi’s BJP, urged couples to have at least three children to provide for themselves. Future of India. “According to the science of population, when growth falls below 2.1, society dies of itself. No one destroys it,” Mohan Bhagwat said at a recent a meeting.

While Mr. Bhagwat’s fears may have some merit, they are not entirely accurate, demographers say. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that in a decade or two, continued “very low birth rates will lead to rapid population decline”.

A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman is leading to a slow, manageable population decline. But an indicator of 1.6 and below could provoke “rapid, uncontrolled population decline.”

“Fewer people will enter reproductive — and mostly working — age, and that will be socially, politically and economically catastrophic. It’s a demographic process and it’s very difficult to reverse,” says Mr Dyson.

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced a record low birth rate in the country “state of emergency” and announced plans to create a special government ministry. Greece the birth rate fell to 1.3half of what it was in 1950, prompting Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to warn of an “existential” threat to the population.

But demographers say that urging people to have more children is futile. “Given the changes in society, including a significant reduction in gender disparities, as women’s lives become more similar to men’s lives, this trend is unlikely to change,” says Mr Dyson.

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which are grappling with a shrinking workforce, the big question is who is stepping in to fill the gap? Developed countries, unable to stop the decline in birth rates, are focusing on healthy and active aging – extending the working life by five to seven years and increasing the productivity of the elderly population.

Demographers say India needs to significantly raise the retirement age, and policies should prioritize increasing healthy life years through better health screening and stronger social security to ensure an active and productive older population – a potential “silver dividend”.

India also needs to make better use of its demographic dividend – the economic growth that occurs when a country has a large working-age population. Mr Gowley believes there is a window of opportunity until 2047 to stimulate the economy, create jobs for the working-age population and allocate resources for an aging population. “We only get 15-20% in dividends – we can do much better,” he says.