American treasurers Sellof: what happened and why

Last week, investors fled on a safe shelter in the US Treasury market last week, in an unusual step, which added to the market shocks caused by the “mutual” tariffs of US President Donald Trump – forcing him to suspend his duties.

In just a few sessions, the profitability for the 10-year treasury increased to 4.592% on Friday, the highest since February. Exactly the same A 30-year-old treasury yield got the highest since November 2023 Last Wednesday. While the yield has been noted below since then, they are still raised.

According to LSEG, the yield has grown about 50 basic points.

Given the recession, fears and markets remain unstable, the sale in the Treasury was unusual, because in times of uncertainty, investors usually seek the safety of US debt.

The unusual outflow raises the question: who selling – and why?

China – the second largest foreign lender in America after Japan, Contains about $ 760 billion in Treasury Securities.

“I think China is actually armed with a treasury that contains,” said Chen Zhao, the main global Macro strategist.

“They sell us the Treasury and transform the proceeds into euros or German rolls. This is actually very appropriate for what happened in the last couple of weeks,” he added. Germany Last week, he made a wider sale in the long dated Treasury, and the 10-year yield was sliding.

However others believe that the sale

A quick sale will reduce the cost of the rest of the bonds, which means Senior Carnegie employee based in Beijing.

“China, who sold Treasurer, is effectively shooting at the leg,” said Michael Brown, Senior Strategist in Pepperston. China, which sells treasures, will require moving capital back to Beijing and gratitude to the yuan.

This will be “accurate” what is going to Beijing, especially at a time when the government hopes to stimulate the domestic economy and lower the tariff blow, Brown CNBC said.

The role of Japan, the largest owner of the US debt, was also questioned. The head of the country’s ruling party policy is reported emphasized that Japan should not “intentionally” sell its treasury possessions After the opposition’s legislator emerged with the idea of ​​using the Treasury as a tool for negotiating in bilateral trade negotiations.

One analyst has stated that Japan could actually be a great guilty of sale of treasury rather than in China.

“Japan is actually a bigger problem,” said Harry Evans BCA Research. More precisely, the life insurers of Japan.

“The Japanese government said very well that we are not going to sell us treasures, but it is not a Japanese government they belong. This is Nippon’s life,” he added.

If these insurers are worried about the fact that the policy in the US is intertwined and want to reduce the exposition, “not much that the government can do.”

Selling can also be fueled by a combination of European and Japanese pension accounts that have long dated treasure troves to acquire European fixed income, said the News Prothent, the Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific.

These major trades Usually used in the macro -hezhe -footage and provide borrowing money for the purchase of treasury when selling futures contracts related to these bonds to profit from price differences.

“Observation of Relations” Morsh for investors conducting monetary or financial policy tabs, which can be inflation, evading government debt or selling them, also make up a list of suspected sellers.

“The closest bonds hit again,” Virtwho noted that the last market movements were a sign that Trump’s policy was wrong.

In addition to hedge -facilities that are promoted in positions, Bond Vigilants, imposing its fiscal discipline and guaranteeing that all that Trump wants to do will be checked on the sale of Ust Holdings, said Newnaha.

The monthly Treasury data are usually delivered with a lag, and the latest figures published in March since January. Data in April is scheduled to release Only in June. Given the scale of the sale and the lack of clear and immediate figures, it is not just to highlight the specific parties that control it, and to what extent the market observers reported CNBC.

But, exposing all assumptions, there is a perception of reducing confidence in US policy.

The “solid and unstable character” policy greatly gives the appeal of the treasures as a safe shelter, said Brown Pepperston.

American Political flip flops As for tariffs undermined confidence in US assets This has led to a weakening US dollar, which will usually be the beneficiary of investors seeking safe asylum assets.

“If the problems with the market confidence with the US administration deteriorate further, it can become a catalyst for sale to take the next leg,” Newuna said.